The Caribbean has recorded an unusually quiet start to the 2026 summer storm season, with no hurricanes so far. Longer-term data points in a different direction.
The frequency of Category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes striking Caribbean countries rose 94% during the decade ending 31 December 2025 compared with the previous 10-year period, according to research from Lloyd’s specialty insurer Atrium.
Caribbean countries experienced 31 strikes from severe hurricanes between 2016 and the end of 2025. The comparable total for 2006 through 2015 was 16.
The figures cover countries and territories belonging to or associated with the Caribbean Community, using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.
Businesses across the region face billions of dollars in additional property losses as severe storms become more frequent. Hotels and other large commercial property owners face substantial exposure because lengthy closures affect revenue well after physical repairs begin.
Atrium said companies need insurance programmes structured around current property values and hurricane exposure rather than historical storm patterns.
Warmer ocean temperatures have contributed to stronger hurricanes, according to climate research cited by Atrium. Storms are also retaining more strength after landfall.
Higher atmospheric moisture increases rainfall volumes and raises flood exposure. These conditions expand the physical damage associated with major tropical cyclones beyond coastal wind losses.
Research published in Nature in 2023 also found intense tropical cyclones forming earlier in the season as the climate warms. Tropical cyclone activity has appeared as early as May, compared with the traditional mid-June start associated with the Caribbean hurricane season.
A longer period of tropical cyclone activity leaves commercial properties exposed for more months of the year. Insurers also face a broader window for accumulated losses across multiple territories.
Hurricane Melissa illustrated the scale of the financial exposure. The Category 5 storm became the first hurricane of that strength to make landfall in Jamaica and generated $8.8bn in economic losses.
Nick Leppard, Head of Property D&F at Atrium, said Caribbean businesses increasingly face destructive hurricanes occurring more frequently and producing heavier losses.
He said companies shouldn’t base risk assessments solely on historical weather experience. The conditions shaping present-day hurricane exposure have changed enough to make older assumptions less reliable.
An El Niño year might reduce hurricane activity across the Caribbean during 2026, Leppard said. The longer-term trend remains a concern for insurers and businesses assessing future catastrophe exposure.
Commercial property owners face another issue: recovery speed. Atrium said adequate insurance remains important for hotels and other businesses holding large physical assets across hurricane-exposed islands. Prompt claims payments give damaged businesses more financial capacity to repair properties and reopen.
The economic effects extend beyond insured buildings. Caribbean tourism economies rely heavily on hotels remaining operational, meaning prolonged closures also reduce income for employees and surrounding businesses.
Tour operators lose customers when hotels close. Restaurants and retailers see lower visitor spending, and recreational businesses such as boat rental operators face similar pressure.
Leppard said the financial consequences of a hurricane often persist long after the storm passes. Businesses carrying appropriate insurance have greater financial resources available for repairs and reopening, reducing the duration of interruption.
Hotels carry particular economic weight across many Caribbean destinations. Each additional week of closure affects employees and suppliers alongside the property owner.
Tourism-related businesses depending on hotel guests also face reduced demand. The economic loss therefore spreads through local supply chains rather than remaining confined to the damaged property.
Atrium said insurance planning needs to take place before hurricane activity begins. Hotels need sums insured and coverage terms that match replacement costs, business interruption exposure and the scale of potential physical damage.
The insurer argues this approach supports faster recovery following severe hurricanes and limits secondary losses across tourism-dependent economies.
Lloyd’s has separately examined the exposure of the global economy to extreme weather, including the financial effects of major natural catastrophes on businesses and economic activity.
Atrium’s analysis focuses on the most severe Caribbean hurricanes, classified as Category 3, 4 or 5 storms. Its 94% increase compares the 31 severe hurricane strikes recorded from 1 January 2016 through 31 December 2025 with 16 during the preceding decade.
The geographic sample includes Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas and Barbados, alongside Belize and Dominica. It also covers Grenada, Guyana and Haiti, plus Jamaica and Montserrat.
Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines form part of the dataset, together with Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago. The analysis also includes Anguilla, Bermuda and the British Virgin Islands, plus the Cayman Islands and Turks and Caicos Islands.
Atrium based the hurricane-count data on records from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Its climate references include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a 2023 Nature study examining the seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones under warming conditions.
Atrium operates as a specialty insurance and reinsurance group within the Lloyd’s market. Atrium Underwriters Limited manages Syndicate 609 and Syndicate 2026, which write specialty insurance and reinsurance business across multiple classes.
