Investment in AI data centres and renewable energy projects could generate $202 bn in cumulative commercial insurance premiums between 2026 and 2030, according to Swiss Re Institute.
AI data centre construction and operations are expected to account for $91 bn, while renewable energy projects could contribute $111 bn.
- Swiss Re Institute forecasts $91 bn in cumulative premiums from AI data centres and $111 bn from renewable energy projects during 2026-2030.
- Construction activity will increase demand for engineering, surety and liability insurance, with operational assets requiring long-term property protection.
- Interconnected infrastructure creates potential for business interruption losses affecting multiple insured companies from a single incident.
The combined forecast is equivalent to approximately 12% of projected global commercial property insurance premiums over the five-year period.
Construction projects will drive specialty insurance demand
The first stage of the infrastructure investment cycle will create opportunities for insurers specializing in engineering and construction risks.
Coverage requirements include damage to works under construction, equipment and materials supply chain exposures, financing-related risks, surety obligations and liability arising during project development.
Large, technically complex infrastructure projects will require substantial underwriting capacity, often involving both commercial insurers and reinsurers.
As facilities progress through commissioning, their insurance requirements will change. Operational property and liability policies will replace much of the construction-specific protection, establishing recurring premium streams over the assets’ working lives.
New premiums generation in 2030 from renewable energy by category, $ bn
New premiums generation in 2030 from renewable energy by region
Infrastructure dependencies increase business interruption exposures
The operational risks associated with data centres and renewable energy installations extend beyond the facilities themselves.
Electricity grids, water systems and transport networks connect multiple businesses. Damage to one component can interrupt operations at other locations, even when those facilities sustain no direct physical loss.
Business interruption claims could spread across multiple insureds when a single infrastructure failure disrupts shared services or interconnected supply chains.
Common suppliers and infrastructure providers can also create concentrations of exposure. Insurers must account for the possibility that one event generates simultaneous losses across several policies.
Insurance capacity will influence premium growth
The scale of infrastructure development presents a significant underwriting requirement, particularly for projects with high insured values and complex engineering characteristics.
The ability to translate investment into premium income will depend on the availability of insurance limits, relevant technical expertise and products suited to the exposures involved.
Swiss Re Institute expects physical infrastructure investment to produce a durable increase in commercial insurance premiums, although the timing will depend on insurers’ ability to meet demand.
Reinsurance capacity will be important for risks that exceed individual insurers’ underwriting limits or involve substantial concentrations of insured assets.
