Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) shares dropped 10% on Thursday after the AI cloud infrastructure provider reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter revenue but disappointed investors with its financial outlook and sharply higher capital expenditure forecasts.
Revenue surged 571% year over year to $980.8 mn, exceeding the $907.5 mn analyst consensus. Net loss narrowed to $37.5 mn, or $0.13 per share, compared with $119.6 mn, or $0.50 per share, in Q3 2025.
Nebius exceeded quarterly revenue expectations but forecast $27 bn in capital expenditures for 2026 and another $40 bn-$45 bn in 2027, substantially above market estimates.
- Nebius Q3 revenue increased 571% to $980.8 mn, while adjusted EBITDA reached $465.8 mn and net loss narrowed to $37.5 mn.
- Management expects 2026 revenue near $3 bn and projects $12 bn-$13 bn for 2027, against analyst expectations of $12.09 bn.
- Capital expenditure guidance increased to $27 bn for 2026 and $40 bn-$45 bn for 2027, raising concerns about the cost of expanding AI data center infrastructure.
The company expects full-year 2026 revenue near the lower end of its previous $3 bn-$3.4 bn guidance, compared with the $3.35 bn analyst forecast.
Nebius Q3 2026 earnings exceed revenue estimates
Nebius reported quarterly revenue of $980.8 mn, compared with $146.1 mn in the corresponding period of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA reached $465.8 mn, reversing an adjusted EBITDA loss of $5.2 mn a year earlier.
The company’s reported net loss from continuing operations declined to $37.5 mn from $119.6 mn.
On a per-share basis, Nebius recorded a GAAP loss of $0.13. Adjusted earnings were $0.30 per share, exceeding the adjusted loss of $0.61 expected in a separate analyst consensus.
Nebius generated $465.8 mn in adjusted EBITDA during Q3 2026, compared with a $5.2 mn loss a year earlier, as AI cloud revenue increased more than sixfold.
For the nine months ended September 30, revenue increased 549% to $1.96 bn from $302.1 mn a year earlier. Nine-month adjusted EBITDA reached $831.5 mn, compared with a loss of $79.9 mn in the previous year.
Operating costs and expenses increased 237% to $930.4 mn during the quarter, including depreciation and amortization of $354.7 mn and selling, general and administrative expenses of $237.4 mn.
Although revenue growth exceeded market expectations, Nebius continued to report a GAAP net loss as depreciation, infrastructure costs and operating expenses increased.
Nebius cuts 2026 revenue expectations and forecasts $13 bn for 2027
Chief Executive Officer Arkady Volozh told shareholders that Nebius expects fiscal 2026 revenue near the lower end of its existing $3 bn-$3.4 bn forecast.
The revised expectation falls below the $3.35 bn consensus estimate, contributing to the negative market reaction despite strong quarterly results.
For 2027, Nebius introduced revenue guidance of $12 bn-$13 bn, compared with the $12.09 bn analyst consensus
Nebius expects revenue to reach $12 bn-$13 bn in 2027, implying substantial growth from the approximately $3 bn anticipated for 2026.
The guidance reflects the company’s planned expansion of its AI computing infrastructure, which requires considerable investment before new capacity can generate revenue.
Its 2027 outlook is broadly consistent with market expectations at the lower end but leaves significant uncertainty around infrastructure deployment and the timing of capacity additions.
The principal concern for investors is the relationship between Nebius’ rapid revenue expansion and the capital required to deliver that growth.
AI infrastructure spending could reach $45 bn in 2027
Nebius increased its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $27 bn, above its previous guidance of $20 bn-$25 bn. The new projection also exceeds the $23.85 bn analyst estimate.
For 2027, management expects capital expenditures between $40 bn and $45 bn, substantially higher than the $28.77 bn market consensus.
At the upper end, the company’s planned 2027 investment would exceed analyst expectations by more than $16 bn.
Nebius’ 2027 capital expenditure forecast is approximately 39%-56% above the $28.77 bn consensus estimate, indicating a considerably larger infrastructure investment program than previously anticipated.
During Q3 2026, spending on property, equipment and intangible assets reached $7.30 bn, compared with $955.5 mn a year earlier.
Net cash used in operating activities from continuing operations totaled $273 mn during the quarter. For the first nine months, operating cash flow from continuing operations was positive at $4.23 bn.
Total assets increased to $38.74 bn at September 30, compared with $12.43 bn at the end of 2025.
The increase in capital spending places greater emphasis on Nebius’ ability to deploy data center capacity, secure customer demand and convert infrastructure investments into future revenue.
Nebius stock forecast and analyst expectations
Nebius shares had gained approximately 85% since the beginning of 2026 before the quarterly results, significantly outperforming the broader US equity market.
The stock rose 15.4% on November 11, closing at $154.69 as stronger earnings from AI infrastructure competitor CoreWeave supported investor sentiment across the neocloud sector.
The following day’s decline came despite the revenue and adjusted earnings beats, indicating that investors placed greater weight on revised guidance and future capital requirements.
Before the earnings announcement, analyst data showed 15 of 22 analysts assigned NBIS a Buy or higher rating, six recommended Hold and one rated the stock Sell.
The average analyst price target stood at $278.05, approximately 80% above the November 11 closing price. These targets preceded the company’s latest financial outlook and may change following the report.
Analysts remained predominantly positive on Nebius before its Q3 results, although the higher investment forecasts could prompt revisions to earnings, cash flow and valuation assumptions.
Nebius operates in the AI infrastructure market alongside CoreWeave and IREN, supplying computing capacity for artificial intelligence applications.
Its broader business portfolio includes autonomous vehicle technology company Avride, education technology provider TripleTen and equity interests in ClickHouse and Toloka.
Nebius’ latest results show strong demand for AI computing infrastructure, but its stock performance will increasingly depend on whether revenue growth can justify an investment program potentially exceeding $40 bn annually.
The company expects revenue growth to accelerate substantially in 2027, with infrastructure expansion remaining central to achieving its $12 bn-$13 bn revenue target.
