- Aon forecasts a 9% average increase in global employer-sponsored medical plan costs in 2027, with healthcare inflation expected to moderate across most regions.
- Medical cost trends are projected at 9.2% in North America, 9.7% in Asia-Pacific, 7.5% in Europe, 10.4% in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 12.2% in the Middle East and Africa.
- Cardiovascular disease, cancer and hypertension remain major drivers of healthcare claims costs, while increasing use of GLP-1 medications is expected to add pressure to pharmaceutical spending.
Aon expects global medical plan costs to increase by an average of 9% in 2027, according to its 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates Report, as healthcare inflation moderates across most regions but continues to exceed general inflation in many markets.
The forecast comes amid geopolitical uncertainty and rapid adoption of artificial intelligence, alongside easing inflation and greater currency stability in several economies. These developments have helped moderate some of the pressures behind rising healthcare costs, although structural factors continue to affect employer-sponsored medical plans.
The 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates Report shows encouraging signs that medical cost increases are slowing across many parts of the world
Kathryn Davis, Head of Global Benefits Analytics at Aon
“However, employers should not mistake moderation for relief. Healthcare costs continue to rise significantly faster than inflation in many markets, driven by long-term pressures such as aging populations, chronic disease, workforce shortages and increasing demand for advanced treatments. Organizations that take a proactive, data-driven approach to managing health and benefits programs will be best positioned to balance affordability with access to quality care.”
- Regional forecasts indicate that medical cost increases will slow across much of the world in 2027, although the pace of moderation varies considerably.
- North America’s gross medical trend rate is projected to decline slightly to 9.2%, the first time in five years that the region’s forecast has fallen below the previous year’s projection.
- Asia-Pacific is expected to record a more substantial moderation, with its medical trend rate declining to 9.7%. Lower forecasts for China and India are among the main contributors to the regional slowdown.
- Europe’s projected medical trend rate will decrease from 8.2% in 2026 to 7.5% in 2027, with most countries reporting stable or lower expectations for healthcare cost increases.
- Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to remain relatively stable at 10.4%, indicating persistent medical cost pressures despite moderating inflation in other markets.
- The Middle East and Africa will see the largest regional decline, according to Aon, with the forecast falling from 15.3% in 2026 to 12.2% in 2027. Easing inflation is contributing to the reduction, although underlying healthcare cost pressures remain significant.
The report also identifies the medical conditions responsible for a substantial proportion of healthcare claims expenditure.
Cardiovascular disease ranks among the three most significant conditions in every region and has the greatest impact on claims in Asia-Pacific, Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean. More than 25 countries identified cardiovascular disease as their most impactful medical condition.
Cancer and tumor growth rank among the five leading conditions in every region, with 25 countries identifying cancer as the largest contributor to medical claims costs. Increasing treatment expenses and demand for specialist services continue to influence healthcare spending.
Hypertension is particularly significant in the Middle East and Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. Fourteen countries identified high blood pressure as their most impactful condition.
Beyond its direct effect on healthcare claims, hypertension contributes to cardiovascular disease and other conditions associated with substantial treatment costs.
Aon also identifies the growing use of GLP-1 medications for diabetes and obesity as an emerging driver of medical expenditure.
These treatments are available in nearly 70% of the countries surveyed and are covered by employer-sponsored medical plans in many markets.
Employers are continuing to assess how GLP-1 therapies should be incorporated into their healthcare and employee wellbeing programs. Increasing utilization is expected to contribute to higher pharmaceutical spending and medical trend rates in the coming years.
The report draws on a survey conducted across more than 100 Aon locations involved in brokering, administering or advising on employer-sponsored medical plans.
Its findings indicate that although the pace of healthcare cost increases is moderating in several major regions, employers continue to face sustained pressure from chronic diseases, demographic changes, workforce shortages and growing demand for advanced medical treatments.
