Analysts at KBW expect risk-adjusted property catastrophe reinsurance pricing to fall 15–20% at the January 2026 renewals. A relatively late renewal cycle, in their view, pushes overall declines closer to the upper end of that range.
Per-occurrence attachment points remain largely unchanged. KBW reads that as evidence of sustained reinsurer discipline rather than complacency.
Most reinsurers still expect catastrophe books to deliver at least adequate results in 2026. Adequate, not spectacular. That distinction hangs over the outlook.
The analysts point to an earlier data point that surprised some in the market. The severe California wildfires in January 2025 barely moved property catastrophe pricing during the June and July renewals, outside of accounts directly exposed to California losses. For the broader market, the event faded quickly from pricing discussions.
During those midyear renewals, risk-adjusted catastrophe rates dropped roughly 10% year over year. KBW attributes that decline to what many buyers and sellers saw as rate super-adequacy after the sharp repricing of 2023.
Those hikes had stacked on top of more modest increases in prior years, and the release valve finally opened.
Pricing softness isn’t limited to U.S. wind. KBW says non-wind lines, European catastrophe covers, and retrocession likely see slightly steeper declines than the headline 15–20% range. The pressure spreads unevenly, but it spreads.
Outside catastrophe, change looks minimal. The mostly proportional casualty reinsurance market, especially in the U.S., should see little movement across most lines.
Reinsurers will track pricing and loss trends that look a lot like what primary carriers face. No insulation there.
KBW still expects reinsurers to post acceptable returns in 2026, assuming catastrophe losses land somewhere near normal. That assumption always carries weight. The catch is valuation.
Falling catastrophe rates point to lower expected returns year over year, which KBW says likely caps upside in reinsurer share prices.
According to Beinsure, that dynamic leaves the sector stable, but hardly exciting.
Moody’s Ratings expects property catastrophe reinsurance pricing to slide by roughly 15% over the next year, driven by elevated capital levels and a supply-demand balance that increasingly favors buyers of protection.
Moody’s points to a relatively calm Atlantic hurricane season in insured loss terms as part of the backdrop. Even so, it doesn’t expect demand to fade.
Primary insurers still want protection, and plenty of it, as catastrophe exposure keeps stacking up.
Global insured catastrophe losses are on track to top $100 bn in 2025, marking the sixth straight year above that threshold, a figure Swiss Re confirmed earlier.
Against that kind of loss history, Moody’s says buyers aren’t stepping back. They’re doubling down on coverage.
Pricing, though, keeps drifting lower. Moody’s expects that trend to continue, yet argues that risk-adjusted returns remain appealing for capital providers.
Not as juicy as peak hard-market levels, but still worth the effort.
