- Political violence insurance capacity drops as premiums surge
- Saudi Arabia postpones major conferences and sporting events
- War exclusions leave event organisers exposed to cancellation losses
- Middle East war claims increase pressure on reinsurers
- War insurance shortages shift financial risks to event organisers
War and political violence insurance for major events in the Gulf has become increasingly difficult to secure as the US-Iran conflict forces insurers to reduce capacity, restrict coverage and sharply increase premiums.
According to Panteha Peters, head of sports, entertainment, media and special risks at Marsh Middle East and Africa, only one insurer, potentially two on limited terms, is currently prepared to consider war-related cancellation risks in the region.
- Only one or two insurers are reportedly willing to consider war-related cancellation coverage for Gulf events, with policies offered under restrictive conditions.
- Political violence insurance capacity has fallen from more than $1 bn to around $200 mn, while some war-risk premiums have increased by as much as 50 times.
- Major conferences, sporting events and exhibitions in Saudi Arabia have been postponed or relocated, increasing financial exposure for organisers and commercial partners.
Coverage is assessed individually and generally becomes available no earlier than a week before an event, Peters told Skift.
Standard event cancellation insurance remains available for risks such as adverse weather, technical failures and certain operational disruptions. War and political violence are typically excluded, requiring organisers to purchase separate protection.
That additional coverage has become particularly scarce since hostilities began in late February 2026.
Political violence insurance capacity drops as premiums surge
The conflict has sharply reduced insurers’ appetite for political violence risks across the Gulf.
Marsh reported that available market capacity declined from more than $1 bn before the conflict to approximately $200 mn during the first quarter of 2026, a reduction of around 80%.
Political violence premiums increased at least 20-fold in some markets, according to Marsh. The broker reported rates on line of 2% to 11%, depending on the exposure.
WTW separately reported that war insurance rates in some Gulf countries rose as much as 50 times in the days following the initial attacks on Iran.
These increases relate to the broader war and political violence insurance market, rather than event cancellation policies specifically.
Underwriters have also tightened policy conditions, increasing deductibles, restricting limits and shortening quotation validity periods.
For some political violence risks, quotations that previously remained valid for seven to 14 days have been reduced to as little as 12 to 24 hours.
Although additional capacity has entered the political violence market, the availability of dedicated war-related event cancellation coverage remains extremely limited.
Saudi Arabia postpones major conferences and sporting events
The insurance restrictions coincide with widespread disruption to Saudi Arabia’s international events calendar.
The Future Investment Initiative, originally scheduled for October 26-29, 2026, has been postponed until 2027. The conference attracts senior executives, institutional investors and international financial institutions.
Intersec Saudi Arabia, a major security and fire protection exhibition expected to attract more than 500 exhibitors and approximately 25,000 industry professionals, has been moved from November 2026 to October 2027.
The 2027 Dakar Rally will also take place outside Saudi Arabia, following a decision announced in October.
Golf Saudi and the Asian Tour postponed the $5 mn PIF Saudi International tournament, while several cultural events, including Riyadh Fashion Week, have been rescheduled.
The disruptions reflect security concerns, travel restrictions and logistical difficulties. Organisers have cited different reasons for individual postponements, and there is no evidence that insurance shortages directly caused every cancellation.
For event operators, however, limited war insurance increases the financial consequences of decisions to proceed with large international gatherings.
War exclusions leave event organisers exposed to cancellation losses
Howden has reported that conventional event cancellation insurance remains available in the Gulf, with pricing and capacity relatively stable for policies excluding war-related losses.
The distinction between standard cancellation coverage and war extensions has become increasingly important.
An organiser may hold insurance covering adverse weather or operational failures but receive no payment if military hostilities force the event to be cancelled.
Potential losses include venue commitments, production costs, ticket refunds, sponsorship revenue and payments to contracted suppliers.
Existing policies may offer broader protection. Howden has noted that some major events purchased insurance well before the conflict, potentially securing war coverage under earlier market conditions. New events face considerably more restrictive terms.
The limited availability of protection also complicates budgeting. Organisers may commit substantial funds months in advance without knowing whether insurance against military-related cancellation will be available shortly before the event.
As a result, some operators may have to retain the exposure themselves, reduce event budgets or negotiate different contractual arrangements with sponsors and suppliers.
Middle East war claims increase pressure on reinsurers
The withdrawal of capacity reflects mounting losses across the wider war, terrorism and political violence insurance market.
Marsh Re estimated that losses in the war, terrorism and political violence reinsurance segment had exceeded $2 bn against annual gross premiums of approximately $2.5 bn.
Howden Re separately estimated that insured political violence and terrorism losses associated with the Middle East conflict could exceed $3 bn.
These estimates concern broader insurance exposures, including commercial property and infrastructure, rather than event cancellation claims alone.
Reinsurers face potential accumulation losses when a single conflict affects multiple insured assets and business activities across several countries. That exposure has contributed to tighter underwriting, reduced limits and higher pricing.
Nevertheless, specialist capacity has not disappeared entirely. New political violence facilities have entered the market, including a Fidelis Partnership consortium offering up to $47.5 mn per risk in the Middle East.
Such facilities do not necessarily provide cover for event cancellation, where the shortage remains more acute.
War insurance shortages shift financial risks to event organisers
The market contraction presents a particular problem for Gulf countries investing heavily in international conferences, sports and entertainment.
Large events involve financial commitments made well before their scheduled dates. Limited insurance availability makes those commitments more difficult to protect against sudden security-related disruption.
The consequences also extend to hotels, venues, transport operators and suppliers, whose revenues depend on events taking place.
Their ability to recover losses depends on individual insurance contracts, including war exclusions and any applicable contingent business interruption provisions.
The shortage of insurance does not necessarily mean insurers will face substantial claims from the recent wave of postponed events. Where war is excluded, the resulting losses may remain with organisers and their commercial partners.
For the Gulf events market, the immediate concern is therefore less the price of standard cancellation insurance than the limited availability of protection against the risk now driving many of the region’s most serious disruptions.
