TD Cowen’s latest field trip to London, held with senior executives from Arch Capital, Ascot, Canopius, Everest Group, Hiscox, Howden Re, Inigo, Intact, Lancashire, and Sirius Point, delivered a snapshot of the evolving Lloyd’s market.
The investment bank reported both competitive strain and a sharpening focus on disciplined, sustainable growth.
Pricing came up first. Property lines at Lloyd’s are seeing pressure as competition builds. Market participants acknowledged this but stressed that there are no destabilising outliers or “bad actors” aggressively undercutting peers. That restraint suggests the market is more stable than in past soft cycles.
Managing general agents remain a sticking point. Executives warned that MGAs without a defined niche could face turbulence ahead, while Lloyd’s itself is said to be pushing back against MGA-led entries.
With Lloyd’s still intent on protecting its newly upgraded credit rating, approval is more likely to go to seasoned, well-capitalised syndicates.
TD Cowen also flagged a rising bar for scale. Where $150mn once allowed a syndicate to build a meaningful footprint, firms now say $500 mn in capital is the minimum to compete effectively.
Syndicate applications are climbing, capital is flowing toward London, but acceptance standards have tightened in response.
Lloyd’s wants entrants that add incremental business, not those that simply cannibalise existing portfolios. Estimates suggest about 70% of new syndicate production will bring new business, with 30% intensifying competition and pressuring rates.
One insurer noted it has already scaled back in London property lines, reflecting a cautious tone. Even so, executives broadly agreed that Lloyd’s offers unique value as a marketplace.
Still, firms stressed the importance of accessing risks through multiple channels. Sole reliance on Lloyd’s, they warned, creates vulnerability if business migrates back to local markets.
The economics remain mixed. Lloyd’s carries a higher expense ratio than comparable U.S. markets—5 to 6 points higher wholesale brokerage costs. But TD Cowen noted that this is usually offset by lower loss ratios, supported by pricing conditions that remain broadly favourable.
Geographically, the Lloyd’s book remains heavily U.S.-oriented, with Europe contributing a relatively small share.
The imbalance underlines why diverse distribution is critical, even as Lloyd’s continues to attract global capital.
TD Cowen’s conclusion is that Lloyd’s is managing its platform with discipline, choosing quality over volume. Capital is eager to enter, but only the strongest syndicates—backed by scale, reputation, and a clear growth story—will clear the higher bar.
For incumbents, that creates both a buffer against disruptive entrants and a reminder that capital efficiency and distribution flexibility will define who thrives in London’s competitive arena.
According to Beinsure’s data, Lloyd’s announced its results for the first six months of 2025 with gross written premium increasing to £32.5bn (HY 2024: £30.6bn) and a combined ratio of 92.5% (HY 2024: 83.7%).
Gross written premium increased by 6.2% to £32.5bn (HY 2024: £30.6bn), driven by volume growth of 11.9% (HY 2024: 5%) from new and existing syndicates.
The positive impact from volume was partially offset by adverse foreign exchange movements of (2.2)% (HY 2024: (2.1)%) as sterling strengthened against the US dollar, and by a negative price change of (3.5)% (HY 2024: +1.5%), though rates in most segments remain adequate.
The market reported an underwriting result of £1.5bn (HY 2024: £3.1bn), with the combined ratio rising to 92.5% (HY 2024: 83.7%) driven primarily by the impact of the California wildfires in the first quarter of 2025.
