Verisk CargoNet, is a cargo-theft intelligence and risk management organization that operates as a business unit of Verisk Analytics, is urging supply chain and logistics operators to tighten security during the year-end shipping rush, warning that cargo theft risk spikes sharply around the holidays.
Based on a five-year review of reported incidents and confirmed attempts, the firm sees heightened exposure from Dec. 23, 2025, through Jan. 2, 2026. Closures, thinner staffing, longer freight dwell times. A familiar setup.
The data points in one direction. Reported holiday-window events rose from 49 in 2020 to 89 in 2024, an increase of about 82%. Across the five periods reviewed, CargoNet logged 353 total events.
For this analysis, events include cargo theft, tractor and trailer theft, and supply chain fraud. Different methods, same outcome.
Cargo theft timing matters more than many expect
- About 69% of incidents occurred between Dec. 23 and Dec. 29.
- Roughly 53% clustered between Dec. 26 and Dec. 30.
- The single busiest day was Dec. 23, accounting for 56 events, or around 16% of the total.
Geography stays consistent. California recorded the highest number of holiday-period events over five years, with 84 incidents. Texas followed with 41, then Illinois and Florida, each with 32.
At the county level, San Bernardino County and Los Angeles County in California, along with Shelby County, Tenn., showed the heaviest concentration. Freight density plus opportunity tends to repeat itself.
Commodity targeting also looks familiar. Vehicle-related goods, tires, auto parts, motor oil, topped the list. Alcoholic beverages, televisions and displays, and computers followed.
Power tools, footwear, and major appliances showed up frequently as well. According to CargoNet, criminals favor goods with strong resale demand and volatile pricing, which makes year-end retail surges especially attractive.
The holiday period creates conditions criminals exploit, reduced oversight, facility closures, and high-value freight moving on compressed schedules.
Keith Lewis, vice president of operations at Verisk CargoNet
Keith Lewis says carriers and shippers should verify every pickup through direct communication with known contacts. No reliance on email, text, or caller ID. One call to a verified number can stop a six- or seven-figure loss.
CargoNet is pushing a layered response for peak-risk days. Verify pickups and appointment changes using trusted contacts already on file. Tighten facility access controls during closures. Limit dwell time for loaded equipment. Avoid unsecured parking. Use monitored parking for longer stops.
Track high-value shipments where possible. Set driver check-in expectations when operations slow down. And report suspicious activity quickly, to law enforcement and to CargoNet, using established channels.
According to Beinsure analysts, holiday cargo theft isn’t a seasonal anomaly anymore. It’s a predictable pattern. The difference between loss and avoidance often comes down to process discipline when everyone else is distracted.
