Hampden Risk Partners (HRP) and Insurance Capital Markets Research (ICMR) have published a joint white paper presenting a new AI-powered method for predicting underwriting performance at Lloyd’s, focusing on relative performance as a benchmark.
This strategic collaboration underscores the power of advanced analytics in enhancing underwriting strategy, optimising capital allocation, improving syndicate management, and gaining a significant competitive edge in the highly competitive Lloyd’s market.
New white paper explains how we assess and forecast performance in the Lloyd’s market.
The paper, Winning Portfolio Strategies: Using innovative AI models to predict relative performance, applies concepts from sports analytics to the Lloyd’s market, where underwriting returns are strongly influenced by cyclical swings.
The analysis by ICMR directly supports our strategy by demonstrating that our approach is successfully targeting growth with quality counterparties, while simultaneously reducing volatility and improving potential reward. Providing a sophisticated and predictive view of future performance enhances transparency and builds confidence with our investors.
By focusing on relative rather than absolute performance, the model seeks to provide a clearer assessment of syndicate capability compared with peers, the authors explained.
The principle of predicting relative performance, crucial for identifying winners in sports, applies directly to the Lloyd’s market.
ICMR has developed an AI-powered model, inspired by these techniques, to predict the relative loss ratio performance of Lloyd’s syndicates using peer performance data curated by ICMR. Our analysis delivers objective, data-driven insights that improve accuracy and bring more transparency to portfolio management.
Markus Gesmann, co-founder of ICMR
HRP, which allocates capacity to outperforming underwriting teams rather than employing in-house underwriters, said the findings support its capital deployment strategy.
The analysis by ICMR supports our strategy by showing that our approach successfully targets growth with quality counterparties while reducing volatility and increasing potential reward.
Providing a predictive and sophisticated view of future performance improves transparency and strengthens confidence with our investors
Chris Sharp, active underwriter at HRP
For Hampden Risk Partners, using relative performance prediction is not just an analytical tool—it is a winning strategy.
Hampden Risk Partners (HRP) Syndicate 2689 is a highly specialised intelligent follow-only syndicate in the Lloyd’s market. Since 2023, HRP has focused on supporting and collaborating with accomplished underwriters at Lloyd’s, providing capacity to those with impressive track records of outperformance rather than building internal underwriting teams.
Insurance Capital Markets Research (ICMR) is a quantitative research firm dedicated to delivering innovative solutions for the complex challenges in the global specialty (re)insurance industry.
