Colorado State University’s hurricane team, one of the most widely cited in the U.S., slightly revised its 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook last week—now forecasting 8 hurricanes, including three major storms.
That projection closely aligns with a lesser-known service, Global Weather Oscillations (GWO), operated by former Air Force and National Weather Service meteorologist David Dilley.
Based in Ocala and Tampa, Florida, GWO not only forecasts seasonal activity but also offers location-specific landfall predictions, which Dilley claims are accurate within a 100-mile radius.
Unlike public forecasts, GWO operates on a paid subscription model. Dilley says he expects one hurricane to make landfall in Florida this season but declines to name the region, citing customer confidentiality.
“It wouldn’t be fair to customers who have purchased subscriptions,” he told Insurance Journal. GWO’s regional forecasts cost $400 per year.
According to Dilley, GWO has around 200 subscribers, including repeat clients who rely on his system, which he says has achieved 90% accuracy—even in long-term forecasts.
Dilley highlights Hurricane Irma in 2017 as an example of GWO’s effectiveness. While most forecasts expected Irma to strike Florida’s east coast, GWO predicted a track through the state’s southwest—an outcome that materialized.
Despite his claims of accuracy, only two insurers have subscribed to GWO in recent years. One is Citizens Property Insurance Corp., Florida’s state-backed insurer of last resort.
A Citizens spokesperson declined to comment on the forecasts or their use but noted that the carrier does not endorse third-party products or use GWO data in rate filings.
Dilley believes that GWO’s tools could help carriers better manage reinsurance purchases and underwriting decisions.
Yet, he acknowledges limited awareness of his company, which he attributes to his views on climate science. Dilley disputes that man-made climate change drives hurricane activity and claims this has kept his firm out of mainstream media coverage.
Dilley, who holds a meteorology master’s degree from Rutgers University, disagrees. He attributes storm cycles to what he calls “natural patterns,” not rising carbon emissions.
His ClimatePulse model uses 150 years of meteorological records and longer-term geological data. He argues that large-scale ocean and atmospheric behavior follows 70-year and multi-millennial cycles influenced by electromagnetic and gravitational forces involving the Earth, Sun, and Moon.
For the 2025 season, he points to Saharan dust over the Caribbean as a suppressing force early on, due to dry upper-level air limiting storm development.
However, he cautions that higher water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico—regardless of their cause—can rapidly intensify weaker systems. Hurricane Milton in 2024, which quickly escalated to a major storm, is cited as a recent example.
Dilley also warned that the threat isn’t limited to Florida. His long-range models predict the U.S. Northeast is due for a high-impact event, potentially comparable to the 1938 New England hurricane, which killed 680 and caused damage equivalent to $300 mn at the time.
He expects ocean temperatures to trend cooler by 2030 but says this won’t eliminate the potential for strong hurricanes. Dilley cites Hurricane Andrew in 1992, a Category 5 storm, as proof that powerful systems can occur during cooler water phases.
