The forecasts suggest that Helene will become a particularly large storm as it intensifies towards a major hurricane, although there remains uncertainty as to the overall size of the wind swath and how Helene might impact the Florida coast, according to National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Hurricane Helene is in the Gulf of Mexico with maximum sustained winds near 90 mph with higher gusts, and strengthening is expected as it heads towards Florida.
Given its large size, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts are expected to extend far beyond the centre and outside the forecast cone.
While it’s too early for accurate insurance and reinsurance industry loss estimates, reinsurance broker Gallagher Re has provided a preliminary loss review for Helene, noting that historically, a major hurricane landfall in the Big Bend or Panhandle region of Florida has led to insured losses in the low single-digit billions of USD.
At landfall Thursday evening – between 9 p.m. and 11 p.m. EDT – Helene will have maximum sustained winds of 130-135 mph, with much stronger gusts to at least 140 mph and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 160 mph.
The sustained winds forecast are the intensity of a Category 4, while the gusts forecast are Category 4 and 5, respectively, on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
“Given Helene’s very large wind radius, this would still bring hurricane-force wind gusts and high storm surge to coastal areas in the heavily populated Tampa Bay area, tropical storm force winds across most of the Florida peninsula, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and southern Appalachia, Gallagher Re said.
This initially suggests that Helene’s private insurance market losses should be expected to land in the range of $3 bn to $6 bn. This is subject to change.
Additional losses attributed to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and the USDA’s crop insurance program may approach $1 bn.
The storm is likely to bring catastrophic and deadly storm surge to parts of the Florida Big Bend coast, with the NHC warning that inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves.
There is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.
Although currently not anticipated and viewed as unlikely, there is a chance that hurricane Helene unexpectedly shifts east and arrives closer to Tampa, an area more densely populated and with higher values at risk.
In this scenario, according to Gallagher Re, “the cost to the private insurance market and federally run programs would be expected to notably exceed $10 bn.”
It is still too early to provide loss estimates for the insurance industry, as a shift in the storm’s path closer to Tallahassee could significantly raise the overall losses
Andrew Siffert, BMS Group’s Senior Meteorologist
There are still questions as to the overall size of the wind swath and how it might impact the west coast of Florida.
In general, however, given the rural nature of much of the Florida landfall area and areas into southern Georgia, it should provide a lower loss than what was experienced in Hurricane Michael in 2018 ($16 bn), which had a track west of Helene as a category five hurricane with strong winds up into southern Georgia.
