Territorial disputes, regime turnover, and shifting global alliances sit at the top of the political risk list insurers face heading into 2026, according to Yoel Sano, head of global political and security risk at BMI, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings. He laid out the outlook during Fitch’s Insurance Insights 2026 event in London.
The Arctic Circle stands out as an early flashpoint. Sano said tensions spiked this year between the United States and several European states over Greenland’s sovereignty and strategic role.
At the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, President Donald Trump claimed progress through a framework deal aimed at defusing the dispute and avoiding a deeper rift with NATO.
Sano said the arrangement buys time, not certainty. Trump could revisit Greenland if dissatisfied. Resolution isn’t locked in.
The Arctic, he added, now functions as a zone of sustained competition among the US, Russia, and China, the latter advancing interests through its Polar Silk Road. Air routes, shipping lanes, and critical minerals drive the contest.
Latin America opened the year with shock. Venezuela’s government fell on Jan. 3, removing Nicolás Maduro. The country now operates under acting president Delcy Rodríguez, whose authority faces internal pressure from hardline and moderate factions.
Sano said insurers should watch whether Rodríguez maintains cooperation with the Trump administration on restarting Venezuela’s oil sector. Fresh elections remain uncertain. Political direction stays fluid.
Elections loom elsewhere in the region. Brazil, Colombia, and Peru head to the polls next year. Recent outcomes in Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile suggest a drift toward centre-right or US-aligned leadership.
Sano said this trend points to expanding US influence across Latin America over the medium term.
In the US, midterm elections add another layer of uncertainty.
With months to go, Trump’s low approval ratings leave room for sharp swings. Sano said upside and downside risks run in both directions for the president and the Republican Party.
Iran presents a different kind of hazard. Sano described the regime’s current stress as the most severe since 2009. Order returned, but at high human cost. The succession of the 86-year-old Supreme Leader remains unresolved. External risk lingers too.
Under Trump, Washington stepped back from earlier military threats, yet Sano said the situation stays unstable. A US or Israeli strike on nuclear facilities could reignite protests and fracture the regime further. Succession scenarios remain wide open.
Across the Middle East, ceasefires haven’t cooled volatility. Conflicts involving Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah continue to shift. Libya remains unstable. Syria’s current Sharia-based leadership raises concerns. Yemen’s war grinds on, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE backing rival sides.
The Indo-Pacific outlook cuts both ways. US-China relations sit in a phase of brinkmanship over trade and tariffs. Taiwan stays a core pressure point following an $11 bn US arms package and Chinese military drills late last year.
Europe hasn’t found closure either. Fighting between Ukraine and Russia continues. Ceasefire talk surfaced at Davos, though Sano warned any pause risks breaking down.
Even if large-scale conflict ends, Russia is likely to keep testing European security through airspace incidents, drone activity, and grey-zone operations.
He said Europe should expect a prolonged standoff between NATO and Russia rather than a clean reset.
Nuclear risk adds another edge. The New START Treaty between the US and Russia expires Feb. 5, 2026. Without renewal, formal limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals disappear.
Sano said insurers should treat that deadline as a serious inflection point.
