Rating pressure for the global insurance sector should stay limited if the Iran conflict remains short and avoids major damage to oil production or shipping infrastructure.
Fitch Ratings expects earnings impact at current rating levels to remain manageable because most insurance contracts exclude war risk, except within narrow specialty markets.
Exposure therefore concentrates in segments where war coverage exists. London market carriers and global specialty insurers hold the most direct links through marine war, aviation war, political violence, trade credit, and energy lines.
Standard property damage, business interruption, and cyber policies usually exclude acts of war, which restricts potential claims.
Market conditions tightened rapidly. Insurance capacity contracted while pricing jumped across war-risk lines. Loss correlation risk also increased as vessels and aircraft operate inside the same conflict zone.
Initial claims recorded during the first quarter of 2026 will provide an early signal of earnings pressure. Fitch expects the financial effect for most insurers to remain modest, similar to the sector’s experience during the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
Indirect economic effects appear more relevant for ratings. According to Beinsure analysts, prolonged market volatility could influence insurers through higher claims costs, declining asset values, and rising corporate defaults within insured portfolios.
Rating movements could also follow broader credit stress. Sovereign or bank rating downgrades sometimes feed into insurance ratings because balance sheets often hold large exposures to government bonds and financial institutions. A longer or more destructive conflict would raise those risks.
War-risk insurance remains mandatory at Lloyd’s of London when ships transit areas listed by the Joint War Committee, including the Strait of Hormuz.
Marine and aviation war policies across the market have faced cancellations or rapid repricing. Maritime war premiums for Hormuz transits reached levels nearly 20x above the historical norm of roughly 0.25% of insured vessel value.
About 1,000 vessels with combined hull values exceeding $25 bn currently operate in the Gulf region and nearby waters. Total insured losses from the destruction of a tanker or large cargo vessel reach several hundred mn $, depending on ship size and cargo value.
Marine war protection and indemnity insurance also addresses environmental liabilities such as oil spills. Coverage limits often cap pollution exposure near $500 mn per event.
Aggregation risk remains elevated because multiple vessels operate within the same narrow maritime corridor.
Political violence and terrorism coverage may also activate if attacks damage physical infrastructure. Many property policies include these extensions.
Data centres, ports, and logistics infrastructure across Gulf Cooperation Council states represent potential exposure points, though losses so far appear limited.
Trade credit and political risk insurers face a different path to claims. Energy price shocks or disruptions to shipping routes could trigger insolvencies among companies reliant on Gulf supply chains.
Standard trade credit contracts usually exclude war, yet sectors such as petrochemicals, transport, and energy distribution remain sensitive to supply disruptions, especially in Asian economies dependent on Gulf hydrocarbon imports.
Insurers based in Gulf markets rely heavily on reinsurance protection. At the same time, global reinsurers have gradually reduced exposure to the region in recent years.
For diversified reinsurance groups the conflict still resembles an earnings event concentrated in specialty lines.
Loss correlation remains the concern. If hostilities expand or economic shock spreads through financial markets, capital pressure and earnings volatility across the global reinsurance sector would rise.
