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Low-growth economy tops emerging risk list in 2025, Gartner says

U.S. P&C insurance sector looks set to grow faster than the wider economy in 2025

Gartner reported that a low-growth economic environment remained the top emerging risk in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking the second consecutive quarter in which economic conditions ranked highest among surveyed executives.

The findings come from Gartner’s Quarterly Emerging Risk Report, based on responses from 367 senior risk and assurance leaders, auditors and executives.

Participants cited financial instability, persistent global trade tensions, labour market pressures, inflation concerns and ongoing financial market volatility as primary drivers of economic risk.

Artificial intelligence-related risks also featured prominently among the top five emerging threats. Respondents highlighted growing exposure tied to rapid AI adoption, including operational, governance and reputational risks.

Gamika Takkar, Director of Research in Gartner’s Risk & Audit Practice, noted that while economic and geopolitical concerns remain elevated, organisations are increasingly focused on the risks associated with expanded AI use – both internally and externally.

The report pointed to accelerating adoption of agentic AI systems, which operate with greater autonomy than traditional AI models.

Many organisations plan broader deployment within the next two years to enhance automation and decision-making efficiency.

However, Gartner warned that increased autonomy heightens risk exposure. Key concerns include algorithmic bias, inaccurate outputs, data leakage, regulatory scrutiny and reduced human oversight.

As AI systems gain complexity, intervention becomes more difficult, raising governance and accountability stakes.

The report underscores the need for strengthened AI governance frameworks, enhanced monitoring controls and updated risk management practices as enterprises integrate more autonomous technologies into core operations.

According to industry analysts, the convergence of macroeconomic pressure and rapid AI transformation is reshaping enterprise risk agendas heading into 2026, with boards increasingly focused on resilience, oversight and operational safeguards.