- CatIQ estimates insured losses from the September 2026 severe storm outbreak in southern Ontario at CAD 563 mn (approximately $395 mn), including property, motor and additional loss adjustment expenses.
- Severe thunderstorms struck Toronto and surrounding regions on September 2–3, producing large hail, destructive winds, confirmed tornadoes and flash flooding that stranded motorists.
- Wind and hail caused a greater share of damage than flooding, contrasting with the 2024 Ontario flood event. Average personal property and auto claims are also currently lower than in 2024.
CatIQ, the Toronto-based catastrophe insurance data provider and subsidiary of PERILS, has estimated insured losses from the severe storm outbreak that affected southern Ontario, including Toronto, on September 2-3, 2026, at CAD 563 mn (~$395 mn). The preliminary estimate was released on October 8, 2026.
The industry loss figure includes residential and commercial property damage, motor insurance claims and additional loss adjustment expenses. CatIQ described the assessment as an initial snapshot of insured losses, with further development expected as insurers process outstanding claims. Detailed meteorological information is available through the company’s subscriber platform.
The storms followed several days of hot and humid conditions across southern Ontario. A late-season outbreak of severe thunderstorms brought exceptionally large hail, damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall to communities stretching from Windsor to Ottawa.
Multiple tornadoes and downbursts were confirmed across the region, contributing to widespread property damage and disruption.
Toronto was among the hardest-hit locations. Hailstones reached the size of ping-pong balls, while powerful wind gusts buckled the side of a large stadium complex. Flash flooding closed major roads, leaving motorists stranded and requiring emergency rescues.
Severe flooding was also reported in Vaughan, immediately north of Toronto, although CatIQ indicated that wind and hail were more significant contributors to insured losses across the broader event.
Caroline Floyd, Director of CatIQ, said the intensity of the storms was unusual for the region, particularly given the direct impact of large hail on Toronto.
Southern Ontario is no stranger to severe thunderstorms, though it is rare to see storms of this intensity – particularly those featuring large hail – make a direct hit on Toronto.
Caroline Floyd, Director of CatIQ
The distribution of damage differed from the major flash flooding that affected southern Ontario in 2024.
“While there was certainly flooding reported with this event, including some severe flooding in Vaughan to the north of Toronto, wind and hail damage played a bigger role this time, versus an event like the flash flooding in 2024,” Floyd said.
CatIQ also reported that average personal property and auto insurance claims from the September 2026 storms were currently lower than those associated with the 2024 flooding.
The comparison suggests a different pattern of insured damage, with the latest event producing substantial losses from hail and wind alongside localized flooding.
The CAD 563 mn industry loss estimate remains preliminary and could change as insurers assess damage, settle claims and incorporate additional information into their reported losses.
“It will be interesting to watch the development of this estimate as the industry continues to process and resolve claims,” Floyd said.
