Swiss Re says the spread of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs could reshape mortality trends in the coming decades. Its latest modelling suggests that by 2045, broad uptake of the therapies could lower all-cause mortality in the US by 6.4% and in the UK by more than 5%.
Paul Murray, CEO of Life & Health Reinsurance at Swiss Re, called GLP-1s a chance to fight the obesity epidemic but stressed the need for more than medication.
GLP-1 drugs hold significant promise to help us beat the obesity epidemic. Our research underscores that the full benefit will come from going beyond medication.
Paul Murray, CEO of Life & Health Reinsurance at Swiss Re
“As insurers, we are in a position to build partnerships, support policy and encourage people to make meaningful lifestyle changes with a focus on prevention. If we get this right, we can strengthen the insurance safety net and contribute to people living longer, healthier lives,” Paul Murray said.
Gallagher Re released a report on the impact of GLP-1 receptor agonists on medical trends and reinsurance. The report highlights how these therapies are altering medical practices and insurance structures, prompting reinsurance providers to adjust their strategies to align with emerging risk profiles.
The research zeroes in on the US and UK, two markets with some of the world’s highest obesity rates and a fast adoption curve for GLP-1s. Over 40% of American adults qualify as obese, while in the UK the figure sits near 30%.
Rising obesity has stalled gains in life expectancy, now contributing to seven of the ten leading causes of death across wealthy economies, from heart disease and stroke to Alzheimer’s and several cancers.
- Swiss Re’s optimistic projection depends on high uptake, minimal side effects, long-term adherence, and lifestyle adjustments that keep weight off. Without these, the benefits fade. Studies show weight regain is common, sometimes complete within a year after treatment stops.
- The baseline scenario, with steady adoption among obese and overweight populations but variable weight loss and partial lifestyle change, still shows material gains: mortality reductions of 4% in the US and 3.2% in the UK by 2045.
- Pessimistic assumptions produce a different picture: limited adoption beyond resistant cases, higher discontinuation due to side effects, weight rebound after treatment, and minimal lifestyle shift. In that case, mortality reductions drop to 2.3% in the US and 1.8% in the UK.
Natalie Kelly, Swiss Re’s Head of L&H Global Underwriting, Claims and R&D, said the drugs could mark a medical breakthrough with heavy insurance implications.
GLP-1drugs could be the medical innovation we’ve been waiting for to reshape mortality trends. The flow-on effect for underwriting assumptions and claims patterns could therefore be significant.
Natalie Kelly, Swiss Re’s Head of L&H Global Underwriting, Claims and R&D
“It is essential that insurers keep ahead of the GLP-1 evolution, and maintain a robust, evidence-based approach to assessing the risks.,” she said.
Modelled impact of GLP-1 drugs on all-cause mortality reductions (fewer premature deaths) in the general population by 2045
| Scenario | Features | US | UK |
| Optimistic | High popularity/engagement Minimal side effects, long-term usage plausible Weight loss maintained long-term Lifestyle changes | 6.4% | 5.1% |
| Baseline | Majority use in obese and highly overweight populations. Slow uptake, accelerating rapidly before levelling off Side effects mostly tolerable for short- to medium-term use Variable weight loss “yo-yo-ing” expected Some ongoing lifestyle change expected | 4.0% | 3.2% |
| Pessimistic | Limited use beyond treatment resistant cases Side effects and medical caution limit broader use Weight regain is common after discontinuation Lifestyle changes remain underused | 2.3% | 1.8% |
Swiss Re’s conclusion: GLP-1s may improve mortality, but only if patients stick with the drugs and embed healthier living. Without that, the promise shrinks to a fraction of the headline gains.
