After a mixed pricing environment at the January 1, 2025, reinsurance renewals, Moody’s analysts expect property catastrophe reinsurance pricing to stabilize at the mid-year US-focused renewal rounds.
The impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, along with costly California wildfires, is expected to influence pricing.
Moody’s highlighted that largest European reinsurers and reinsurance brokers shared insights on their January 1 renewals, when 40% to 60% of a global reinsurer’s portfolio is typically renewed, including much of the European reinsurance business.
Among the four largest European reinsurers, all except Munich Re recorded premium growth at the January renewals.
Munich Re’s decline resulted from underwriting adjustments. Despite a softer pricing environment compared to January 1, 2024, companies still deployed capital in what remained an attractive market (see TOP 50 Largest Global Reinsurance Groups in the World).
Pricing across these reinsurers’ portfolios was largely stable. Hannover Re reported a 2.1% decrease, while Swiss Re recorded a 2.8% increase.
SCOR saw its first pricing decline in its non-proportional business since 2017, with a 0.8% drop.
Reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter reported a 6.2% rate decline in the key US property catastrophe segment, marking the first decrease since 2017.
Moody’s noted that pricing remained stable in lower reinsurance layers, which cover frequent and smaller claims (see Largest Reinsurance Companies in the United States 2025).
However, rates declined at the upper layers of reinsurance programs, where capacity for large and infrequent losses remained ample, keeping pricing attractive on a risk-adjusted basis.
Attention now turns to the mid-year reinsurance renewals, which are heavily focused on the US. Recent major loss events, including Hurricanes Helene and Milton and the Los Angeles wildfires, are expected to influence pricing.
Moody’s expects these catastrophe losses to support US reinsurance pricing, particularly for accounts with substantial claims from these events. Significant rate increases may be seen for policies that experienced heavy losses over the past year.
