Property insurance markets are set for sharper declines, with rate movement down by as much as 20%, while casualty pricing looks steadier and in some cases slightly higher, according to report from USI Insurance Services.
Non-catastrophe property risks with clean loss records and solid profiles are expected to renew flat or down as much as 10%.
Accounts carrying catastrophe exposure fall into a steeper range, down 5% to 20%, even with otherwise favorable characteristics.
Property risks with weaker loss history or less attractive profiles tell a messier story. USI expects pricing for those accounts, whether catastrophe exposed or not, to range from down 15% to up 5%. Volatility creeps in there. Not surprising.
USI points to a lighter-than-expected 2025 loss year, ample capacity, and treaty renewals that look supportive.
According to Beinsure analysts, that mix keeps competition alive across property markets through at least the first half of 2026.
Casualty lines move on a different track. Primary general and product liability pricing is forecast flat to up 12.5%. The tone is calmer than prior years, though nobody’s calling it easy.
Auto liability remains the sore spot. For fleets under 200 vehicles with good loss experience, primary auto liability rates should land flat to up 12.5%.
Fleets of the same size with poor loss records face far steeper pressure, with increases projected between 20% and 40%. Larger fleets, those over 200 vehicles, fall somewhere in between, up 5% to 20%.
USI said the second half of 2025 brought stabilization across most casualty segments. Capacity stayed available. Rate increases slowed for well-managed risks. Still, the market isn’t letting go entirely.
Social inflation continues to bite. Claim severity keeps climbing, reserve strengthening follows, and automobile liability absorbs much of the impact. It’s an old problem that hasn’t gone away.
Umbrella and excess liability for middle-market buyers is forecast flat to up 15%. Larger risk-managed programs should expect flat to up 20%.
Directors and officers coverage shows less strain. Public company D&O is projected flat to up 7.5%, while private company and not-for-profit D&O should land flat to up 5%, according to USI.
