Shipper long-term rates to raise 5% to 15% during 2026 after the escalation of conflict in the Middle East changed the rate, demand and supply picture for global cargo markets, with the February supply shock doing most of the damage.
On 28 February, the escalation of conflict in the Middle East removed 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight. That left global air cargo supply growth at only 1% in the first half of 2026.
According to Xeneta, the ocean and air freight rate intelligence solution, demand moved the other way. Volumes increased 4% over the same period, above Xeneta’s original full-year forecast of 2% to 3%.
The company now expects 2026 demand growth to finish near the upper end of that range, while capacity growth lands near the lower end of a revised 2% to 3% range (see Infographic: Air Cargo Market Update).
The imbalance pushed pricing higher across major air cargo markets. Global air cargo rates, including spot and long-term contracts, rose 17% year-on-year in the first half of 2026.
Demand growth to soften through the second half of 2026 as supply recovers from the Middle East disruption. If those two lines move closer together, shippers should regain some pricing power.
The 2026 disruption has also shown why air freight remains a fallback option for global supply chains when other modes slow or seize up. Missile attacks closed major air hubs across the Middle East overnight, creating what van de Wouw described as the most sudden air cargo capacity shock in living memory. The Covid-19 pandemic created a larger disruption overall, but it built over time rather than hitting the market in one night.
Air freight recovered faster than ocean shipping.
Ocean services have only started to move again through the Strait of Hormuz, while air freight charters returned within days. Air cargo does not control the geopolitical events shaping capacity, but it reacts quickly when routes, hubs and schedules break.
Two demand trends now pull the market in different directions. AI-related shipments are rising sharply, led by semiconductors and hardware. Global semiconductor sales more than doubled year-on-year in April 2026, rising 106%, the strongest growth since records began in 1986.
AI-related goods still represent less than 10% of total air cargo volumes. Their impact looks larger than their share because they are concentrated on the Transpacific, now the strongest corridor of the year.
E-commerce is moving the other way. China’s low-value and e-commerce exports fell 7% year-on-year in May 2026, marking a sixth straight monthly decline. That removes part of the demand growth air cargo relied on in recent years.
The European Union removed its €150 duty-free threshold for low-value imports on 1 July 2026. It replaced the exemption with a flat €3 duty per item, with an additional €2 handling fee expected in November. Those changes tighten the low-value parcel trade that fed e-commerce-driven air cargo growth during the last cycle.
For shippers, the message is uncomfortable. The market has moved away from the cheaper-rate scenario expected at the end of 2025, and the recovery in supply has not yet caught up with demand.
AI hardware gives air cargo a new source of high-value volume, but weaker e-commerce and unstable Middle East capacity make 2026 harder to price than a standard cycle.
