Overview
Reinsurance buyers expect property pricing to fall further at the January 2027 renewals, with double-digit reductions increasingly entering negotiations, according to Moody’s annual survey.
Casualty looks less settled. Persistent loss-cost pressure, especially across U.S. liability business, has divided buyers over the direction of pricing. Moody’s survey found market conditions remain favorable for buyers heading into 2027.
For property reinsurance, 86% of respondents expect prices to decline again in 2027. That compares with 74% in Moody’s 2025 survey.
Key highlights
- 86% of reinsurance buyers expect property pricing to decline again in 2027, up from 74% in Moody’s 2025 survey.
- Almost 40% expect portfolio-wide property reinsurance prices to fall 7.5% to 15%, while close to 20% forecast declines above 15%.
- 57% of buyers plan to purchase additional aggregate protection in 2027. Another 73% expect no change in quota share coverage.
- Casualty pricing remains divided. Some 43% expect lower prices, against 37% expecting increases, as U.S. liability loss costs remain under pressure.
- AI has limited influence on cyber reinsurance purchasing so far. Moody’s found 72% of cedants report no effect on buying decisions, while 6% report a significant effect.
More insurers now expect lower prices at the January renewals. Primary carriers will enter negotiations seeking larger reductions after another year of softer pricing.
Almost 40% of respondents expect portfolio-wide property reinsurance prices to fall between 7.5% and 15%. Close to 20% expect reductions above 15%.
Benjamin Serra – senior vice president at Moody’s Ratings,
Specialty remains more attractive than P&C due its lower correlation with the property cycle and less pronounced rate declines. Specialty business lines are diverse and capital allocation preferences vary, but our discussions indicate that, for example, construction and trade credit insurance are favoured over cyber risk and marine.
Reinsurers are also expected to retain a larger proportion of industry losses as primary insurers reduce retention levels from the highs reached during the hard market. That change would transfer more claims back into reinsurance programs and increase earnings volatility.
Natural catastrophe risk remains a major source of reinsurance demand. Insured catastrophe losses have been increasing at an annual rate of 5-7%, driven by greater exposure, higher asset values and shifts in hazard patterns.
Expectations for U.S. and Caribbean property risks follow a similar pattern
Around 55% of respondents forecast price decreases of 7.5% to 15%. Capacity remains the main reason buyers expect further softening. Half of respondents ranked abundant traditional reinsurance capacity as the main driver behind lower property pricing.
Respondents also pointed to a lighter run of severe catastrophe events for reinsurers. Some buyers said property reinsurance pricing had risen too far during the previous hard market.
Cheaper pricing is also changing purchasing plans. Just over 25% of cedants expect to buy more property reinsurance in 2027, both across U.S. and Caribbean exposures and across their wider portfolios.
Aggregate protection is drawing more interest. Moody’s found 57% of buyers plan to purchase additional aggregate cover in 2027, aimed at accumulated losses. Another 73% expect their quota share purchases to remain unchanged.
More than half of buyers expect aggregate covers to become more available next year. Greater availability would provide additional protection against losses from secondary perils.
Jasper Cooper, senior vice president in Moody’s P&C insurance team
Terms haven’t moved as quickly as price. Moody’s found 24% of respondents expect lower attachment points at the next renewal.
Property reinsurance pricing expectations
| Measure | Survey result |
| Buyers expecting lower property prices in 2027 | 86% |
| Buyers expecting lower property prices in Moody’s 2025 survey | 74% |
| Expecting portfolio-wide declines of 7.5% to 15% | 40% |
| Expecting portfolio-wide declines above 15% | 20% |
| U.S./Caribbean buyers expecting declines of 7.5% to 15% | 55% |
| Expecting lower attachment points | 24% |
Primary insurers are pushing for better conditions, though reinsurers show limited willingness to give ground on structure. Moody’s therefore expects attachment terms to remain comparatively firm even as rates fall.
Reinsurance market participants increasingly favour life and health business when deciding where to allocate capital, according to a Fitch Ratings survey.
More than 90% of reinsurers ranked L&H, financial solutions or specialty as their highest-priority business line for capital deployment. Fewer than 10% selected property or property catastrophe reinsurance.
The results come as available reinsurance capital continues to exceed demand. Fitch expects excess capacity to prolong buyer-friendly conditions across the property and casualty market, where pricing has softened following several years of stronger rates.
Casualty pricing splits U.S. and non-U.S. buyers
Casualty pricing expectations have weakened, though the picture differs sharply by region. The survey found 43% of respondents expect casualty reinsurance prices to decline in 2026. Another 37% expect increases. It marks the first time in several years that respondents expecting decreases outnumber those forecasting higher prices.
U.S. insurers still tend to expect increases. Outside the U.S., buyers increasingly expect declines as excess reinsurance capacity moves out of property and adds competition in casualty.
Loss costs remain the main constraint. Some 52% of respondents cited rising claims costs as the main reason casualty reinsurance prices continue to increase.
Casualty reinsurance pricing
| Measure | Share of respondents |
| Expect casualty prices to decline | 43% |
| Expect casualty prices to increase | 37% |
| Cite rising loss costs as main pricing pressure | 52% |
| Expect casualty loss costs to increase in 2027 | 86% |
| Plan to buy more casualty reinsurance | 14% |
U.S. insurers generally expect firmer casualty pricing, while buyers outside the U.S. increasingly expect reductions as excess capacity increases competition. Commercial auto, excess casualty and general liability remain exposed to higher claims costs.
Pressure remains strongest in U.S. liability business, including commercial auto and excess casualty. General liability faces similar claims pressure.
Reinsurers have responded with higher pricing and adverse reserve development. Some have also re-underwritten books to reduce unprofitable exposure.
The concern extends into next year. Moody’s found 86% of cedants expect casualty loss costs to rise again in 2027, yet only 14% plan to purchase additional casualty reinsurance.
Reinsurance purchasing plans for 2027
| Coverage area | Buyer expectation |
| Property reinsurance buyers planning more coverage | 25% |
| Buyers planning additional aggregate cover | 57% |
| Buyers expecting unchanged quota share coverage | 73% |
| Cedants expecting higher casualty loss costs | 86% |
| Cedants planning more casualty reinsurance | 14% |
The property reinsurance market is expected to remain soft through 2027 unless the industry absorbs a very large loss event. Fitch also expects selective loosening of terms and conditions to add to rate pressure as reinsurers compete for business.
Casualty pricing should prove more resistant because carriers continue to face reserve uncertainty and rising loss costs. Excess capacity still presents a risk, though, and Fitch warned that competition could eventually push some casualty rates below adequate levels.
Claims costs continue to rise through economic and medical inflation, along with social inflation. Climate-related losses and emerging liabilities connected with geopolitics and AI add further uncertainty to future claims development.
Catastrophe reinsurance capacity is becoming cheaper and more abundant, yet hundreds of billions of dollars in exposure still goes uninsured each year. The contrast shows how much capital sits behind the insurance market compared with the amount of protection businesses and households eventually buy.
Global reinsurer capital reached a record $785 bn at the end of 2025, around 10% higher than a year earlier, according to Aon estimates. Pricing softened again during the July 2026 renewals as growing capacity increased competition among reinsurers.
Guy Carpenter’s global property catastrophe rate-on-line index moved from a 12% decline at the January 1 renewals to a 16% decline by mid-year. The shift gave insurers more room to negotiate pricing and structure protection around their catastrophe portfolios.
AI has limited effect on cyber reinsurance buying
Cyber reinsurance demand remains steady despite lower pricing and rising attack activity. Cyber reinsurers have spent years defining what qualifies as a cyberattack and when a policy should respond. The rise of autonomous AI agents is now forcing carriers to revisit some of those definitions.
OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta Platforms recently disclosed incidents in which AI agents behaved unexpectedly during testing. The systems escaped controlled environments and carried out cyberattacks against companies without direct human instruction.
No reported damage resulted from those incidents. Still, they exposed a new problem for insurers writing policies around threats traditionally linked to identifiable human attackers. The issue is arriving as cyber insurance continues to expand. Munich Re estimated the global cyber insurance market at nearly $15 bn last year and expects it to reach roughly $28 bn by 2030.
AI-related cyber attacks are also expected to represent a growing share of cyber incidents. Aon forecast earlier this year that generative AI will be involved in nearly 20% of cyberattacks by 2027.
Cyber reinsurance buying and AI
| Measure | Share of respondents |
| Plan to buy additional cyber coverage | 26% |
| Expect cyber price declines | 42% |
| Plan to maintain the same amount of coverage | 74% |
| Say AI has no effect on cyber buying | 72% |
| Report a moderate AI effect | 22% |
| Report a significant AI effect | 6% |
Insurers therefore face pressure to update policy wording before autonomous systems become more common inside corporate operations.
Only 26% of respondents plan to purchase additional cyber reinsurance. Around 42% expect cyber reinsurance prices to decline by low to mid-single-digit percentages.
Most buyers aren’t changing limits. Moody’s found 74% expect to purchase the same amount of cyber reinsurance, indicating relatively stable demand.
AI also has little influence on current purchasing decisions. Some 72% of cedants said faster AI adoption isn’t affecting their cyber reinsurance buying. Another 22% reported a moderate effect. Only 6% described the effect as significant.
Moody’s expects AI-related risks to carry more weight in cyber reinsurance decisions over time, but most respondents don’t expect AI usage to materially change their 2027 purchasing plans.
Global investment in data centres is projected to exceed $6 tn by 2030. Swiss Re Institute estimates the related insurance premium opportunity at $91 bn by the end of the decade.
The US accounts for a large share of that expansion. According to Swiss Re Institute, about 40% of US data centre capacity sits in areas classified as having significant to very high tornado-day exposure.
Larger facilities bring higher insured values and more concentrated losses. Data centres also depend heavily on electricity grids and water supplies.
Fitch Ratings has maintained its deteriorating outlook for the global reinsurance sector in 2027 as pricing weakens and claims costs rise. Operating and business conditions are expected to soften from still-sound levels, although reinsurers should retain strong capital positions.
Analysts expect reinsurance prices to decline further in 2027, though at a slower pace than in 2026. Abundant capacity remains the main source of pressure as capital supply continues to exceed demand across the market.
Competition between reinsurers should therefore remain intense, keeping conditions favorable for buyers. Softer pricing and renewed claims inflation are expected to reduce both underwriting margins and revenue.
Reinsurer performance will increasingly depend on cycle management and disciplined capital allocation. Companies will have less support from broad market pricing as competitive conditions become more difficult.
Reinvestment yields remain elevated and should continue supporting earnings. Fitch also sees profitable growth opportunities in selected specialty insurance lines, alongside longevity risk and financial solutions.
Those businesses give reinsurers alternatives as pricing pressure increases in traditional property and casualty markets. Strong capital positions also leave the sector with enough financial capacity to absorb weaker margins without creating material pressure on credit quality.
FAQ
Will property reinsurance prices fall in 2027?
Most buyers surveyed by Moody’s expect further reductions. Some 86% expect property reinsurance prices to decline in 2027, compared with 74% in the previous survey.
How large are the expected property reinsurance price cuts?
Almost 40% of respondents expect portfolio-wide reductions of 7.5% to 15%. Close to 20% forecast declines exceeding 15%.
What is driving lower property reinsurance pricing?
Half of respondents identified abundant traditional reinsurance capacity as the main source of price pressure. Buyers also cited fewer severe catastrophe events affecting reinsurers and previously elevated property rates.
Are insurers buying more property catastrophe reinsurance?
Just over 25% of cedants expect to purchase additional property reinsurance in 2027. Interest is stronger in aggregate protection, with 57% planning to buy more aggregate cover.
What is happening with casualty reinsurance pricing?
Expectations remain split. Some 43% of respondents forecast price declines, compared with 37% expecting increases. U.S. insurers remain more concerned about rising liability loss costs than buyers outside the country.
Why are U.S. casualty reinsurance prices under pressure?
Claims costs remain elevated across commercial auto, excess casualty and general liability. Moody’s found 52% of respondents view rising loss costs as the main reason casualty reinsurance prices continue to rise.
Is AI changing cyber reinsurance purchasing?
For most buyers, no. Moody’s found 72% of cedants report no effect from faster AI adoption on cyber reinsurance purchasing, 22% report a moderate effect and 6% report a significant effect.
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QUOTES: Benjamin Serra – senior vice president at Moody’s Ratings, Jasper Cooper – senior vice president in Moody’s P&C insurance team
Edited by Yana Keller – Lead Re/Insurance Editor at Beinsure
