Inflation continues to be the key concern for insurers according to Swiss Re Institute’s sigma. The effect of inflation on the global economy has led to total global insurance premium falling slightly by an estimated 0.2% in real terms in 2023.
Swiss Re Institute expects the insurance industry to return to premium growth of 2.1% annually on average in real terms in 2023 and 2024, supported by a combination of easing inflation, market hardening in property and casualty lines, as well as stronger life insurance demand.
A silver lining for the insurance industry comes from central bank interest rate increases that are expected to improve investment results over the medium term.
- The insurance industry is forecast to return to growth in 2023–2024 after total global premiums are estimated to have contracted by 0.2% in real terms in 2022
- Inflation remains the key concern for insurers, with average annual global consumer price index (CPI) inflation forecast at 5.4% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024
- Real non-life premiums forecast to grow by 1.8% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024; life premiums to grow by 1.7% across 2023 and 2024
Global economy will cool down
The global economy will cool down noticeably under the weight of inflation and interest rate shocks. The repricing of risk in the real economy and financial markets is actually healthy and a long-term positive. Higher risk-free rates should mean higher returns for investing into the real economy.
Global economic growth has exceeded expectations so far this year, but a slowdown in the second half is likely.
Persistent high inflation has led to the “higher for longer” interest rate policy, impacting the insurance sector as well.
High interest rates caused instability in the banking sector earlier this year, but insurers, with their strong capital positions, have remained stable.
We anticipate the insurance industry will show resilience over the next two years. We predict global insurance premiums, both non-life and life, will grow by 1.1% in 2023 and 1.7% in 2024 in real terms, after a 1.1% contraction in 2022.
Jérôme Haegeli, Swiss Re Group Chief Economist
Premium volumes are expected to reach a new nominal high this year, reflecting market growth.
Largest insurance markets globally
In nominal terms, the US remained the largest insurance market globally last year, followed by China and the UK.
Canada, India, and Brazil notably increased their shares of global premiums. Swiss Re project India will become the sixth largest market by 2032.
Premium volumes in nominal terms
| Rank | Countr | Total premium (USD bn) | % change | Global market share |
| 1 | US | 2960 | 8,6 | 43,7 |
| 2 | China | 698 | 0,2 | 10,3 |
| 3 | UK | 363 | -2,8 | 5,4 |
| 4 | Japan | 338 | -15,1 | 5 |
| 5 | France | 261 | -10,7 | 3,9 |
| 6 | Germany | 242 | -11,3 | 3,6 |
| 7 | South Korea | 183 | -5,3 | 2,7 |
| 8 | Canada | 171 | 2,8 | 2,5 |
| 9 | Italy | 160 | -16,5 | 2,4 |
| 10 | India | 131 | 6,5 | 1,9 |
| 11 | Taiwan | 86 | -23,8 | 1,3 |
| 12 | Netherlands | 84 | -9,2 | 1,2 |
| 13 | Brazil | 76 | 20,7 | 1,1 |
| 14 | Australia | 72 | -0,7 | 1,1 |
| 15 | Hong Kong | 69 | -5,6 | 1 |
| 16 | Spain | 68 | -6,7 | 1 |
| 17 | Switzerland | 56 | -3,2 | 0,8 |
| 18 | Sweden | 54 | -8,5 | 0,8 |
| 19 | Singapore | 47 | 3,9 | 0,7 |
| 20 | South Africa | 46 | -7,9 | 0,7 |
During today’s challenging times – and for the economic recovery period ahead – the insurance industry can show its value as it provides financial resilience at all levels of the community.
Major economies, notably in Europe, are likely facing inflationary recessions in the next 12–18 months amid higher interest rates. Global GDP growth is forecast to slow to 1.7% in 2023, from 2.8% in 2022.
Swiss Re Institute forecasts 5.4% average annual global CPI inflation in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024, down from 8.1% in 2022. Despite expected easing in momentum, inflation is anticipated to stay volatile and persistently above historic averages.
For insurers, inflation is a challenge because it erodes nominal premium growth, impacts global demand, and creates higher claims costs in non-life lines.
Global Non-life insurance market
In non-life, the main driver of the growth will be market hardening in commercial and now also personal lines, with insurers raising premium prices to offset inflation-induced rising claims costs.
We see the motor segment returning to growth after three years of contraction, but a decline in health premiums due to the end of the pandemic support policies in the US could offset gains in other lines.
With inflation pressures still persistent, hard market conditions in non‑life are set to continue as insurers offset elevated claims costs with higher premium prices.
Global life insurance market
In life insurance, rising wages and interest rates in advanced markets are creating favourable growth and profitability tailwinds, including demand for annuities and pension risk transfer products.
Analytics also see new life risk pools in Hong Kong as a result of China’s reopening. Global savings products premiums should grow, driven by an estimated 4.3% gain in the emerging markets.
Global L&H market by risk and savings products’ premiums (USD billion) and growth (%)
Global L&H market split between savings and risk products
The profit outlook for life insurers is positive, based on four key drivers: improved investment returns, normalisation of COVID-19 related claims, a de-risking of pension and annuity premiums, and a stabilisation of earnings volatilities with implementation of the IFRS 17 accounting framework this year.
On the downside, however, amidst the low growth and still-high inflation environment, we flag credit downgrades and lapses as two potential tail risks for sector earnings.
Insurance market improvements
Insurance market improvements in 2024 as economies recover and pricing improvements take effect.
Swiss Re Institute forecasts that non-life real premium growth will recover to 1.8% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024 after weak 0.9% growth in real terms in 2022.
In Europe, the expected rebound reflects improving economic conditions as the region recovers from the forthcoming downturn.
Potential insurance rate increases and easing inflation in the US, as well as more favourable real growth in Asia are expected to support stronger premium growth in those regions.
China, which represents 60% of emerging market non-life premiums, can anticipate 4.0% real non-life premium growth in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024.
Insurance premium forecast in real terms
Real GDP growth and CPI inflation forecasts
| | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Real GDP growth, annual avg. % | Global | 1.7% | 2.8% |
| | US | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| | UK | –1.0% | 0.9% |
| | Euro area | –0.2% | 1.3% |
| | Japan | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| | China | 4.1% | 4.9% |
| | Switzerland | 0.9% | 1.5% |
| | |||
| Inflation, all-items CPI, annual avg., % | Global | 5.4% | 3.5% |
| US | 3.7% | 2.8% | |
| UK | 7.0% | 3.7% | |
| Euro area | 6.2% | 3.0% | |
| Japan | 1.5% | 0.9% | |
| China | 2.6% | 2.4% | |
| Switzerland | 2.0% | 1.5% |
Commercial lines are expected to benefit most from rate hardening and expand more than personal lines (excluding health) in the coming years.
Swiss Re Institute estimates 3.3% growth in commercial premiums in 2022 and a 3.7% increase in 2023.
Global personal lines insurance premiums are expected to shrink by 0.7% in 2023, primarily due to underperformance in motor insurance in advanced markets, and then recover to 1.8% growth in 2024.
The cost-of-living crisis in advanced markets is estimated to have led to a contraction in global life insurance premiums of 1.9% in real terms in 2022. This is forecast to be followed by real premium growth across 2023 and 2024 of 1.7%, primarily driven by 4.3% growth in emerging markets, including China.
Life premium growth drivers are diverging in advanced and emerging markets. Inflation in advanced markets, particularly Europe, is squeezing household budgets and therefore reducing consumer demand for individual savings products.
In emerging markets, the growing middle class and government targets for life insurance penetration are supporting growth in savings business. Demand is also being supported by younger, digitally savvier emerging markets consumers who are more aware of the benefits of holding long term life policies.
………………….
AUTHOR: Jérôme Haegeli – Swiss Re Group Chief Economist
