Hail has become one of the main drivers of insured losses, with modern storms now capable of generating financial damage on a scale comparable to a Category 4 hurricane, according to Cotality.
For insurers and reinsurers, that shift means historical averages no longer do the job. Risk assessment needs to move toward property-level modelling, with sharper attention on location, construction, and exposure details.
Cotality says the wider recovery chain, including insurers, must also work from coordinated, data-led strategies to support faster and more durable rebuilding in affected communities.
Severe convective storms were once treated as secondary perils, frequent events with relatively low severity. Cotality says that label no longer fits. Its 2026 Severe Convective Storm Risk Report shows the loss profile has changed, and changed hard.
The report identifies more than 43.5 mn US properties facing moderate or greater hail risk. Together, those properties account for about $17.84 tn in reconstruction cost value.
In 2025, the US logged 142 days with damaging hail, seven more than in 2024 and well above the 20-year average of 122 days. That trend matters because frequency keeps building on top of severity, and the cost stack gets ugly fast.
Jon Schneyer, Cotality’s director of research and content, said hail does not attract the same level of public attention as hurricanes, floods, or wildfires, though the numbers now place it among the most financially destructive natural hazards in the property market.
During those hail events, stones measuring two inches or more hit more than 600,000 homes, representing roughly $177 bn in reconstruction cost value.
He said the peril was once viewed as secondary, associated with smaller losses, though it has turned into one of the largest sources of property insurance claims. In his view, that transition is placing heavier pressure on insurers and recovery teams as they race to restore damaged communities.
Cotality’s modelling shows hail is the leading source of loss across the severe convective storm spectrum, from rarer 1-in-500-year events to more frequent 1-in-50-year events.
In a 1-in-500-year scenario, hail alone could account for about 80% of the estimated $71 bn in insured losses generated by all severe convective storm perils combined, including tornadoes, straight-line winds, and hail.
That works out to roughly $58 bn from hail by itself.
Even less extreme events tell the same story. A severe hailstorm expected once every few decades can still produce nearly $30bn in insured losses, a level Cotality says is comparable to a major hurricane.
Texas remains the highest-risk state, driven by its size, geography, and rapid urban growth. In 2025 alone, more than 235,000 homes in Texas experienced damaging hail, far above any other state.
Exposure is especially concentrated in the Texas Triangle, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. Together, those areas represent more than $2.2 tn in exposed reconstruction cost value facing moderate or greater hail risk.
The report also says tornadoes and straight-line winds add a separate and significant layer of exposure across the US.
- More than 76 mn homes face moderate or greater tornado risk, representing potential reconstruction cost value above $27 tn.
- Another 64 mn homes face exposure to damaging winds of 65 mph or more, with reconstruction cost value exceeding $23 tn.
Cotality’s conclusion is blunt enough. Traditional underwriting based mainly on historical hazard data or broad regional averages is no longer sufficient.
That approach leaves portfolios exposed to risks it does not properly capture.
According to Beinsure analysts, the market now needs tighter property-level risk selection, sharper pricing discipline, and better accumulation control. Old assumptions aren’t holding up.
