AccuWeather’s first forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season points to slightly below-average activity. The firm expects 11-16 named storms, four to seven hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher during the season, which starts June 1 and runs through November.
The main factor behind the softer outlook is El Nino. AccuWeather expects the weather pattern to increase wind shear across the Atlantic, a setup that often disrupts storm development.
The company also said a super El Nino could emerge in the second half of the season, which would further reduce storm formation during the peak months.
Still, the picture is not straightforward. The last Atlantic season influenced by El Nino came in 2023, and it still produced 20 named storms, one of the busiest seasons on record. So the suppressing effect is real, though it does not shut the basin down on its own.
Warm water is the other side of the forecast, and it matters. Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico temperatures remain supportive for storm development.
Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic are expected to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer, with heat extending hundreds of feet below the surface.
That deeper ocean heat gives storms more fuel. DaSilva said the setup raises concern over rapid intensification during the 2026 season.
Even in a year expected to produce slightly fewer storms, stronger systems can still form quickly. That risk stays on the table.
The long-term average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Against that baseline, AccuWeather’s forecast comes in a bit lighter, though not by much.
The 2025 season offered a reminder of how misleading simple storm counts can be. No hurricanes made landfall in the US, yet the season still produced three Category 5 hurricanes, the second-highest number ever recorded in a single season. Lower activity on paper doesn’t remove the threat. It changes the shape of it.
