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US stock futures were mixed on Tuesday with technology shares under pressure as investors prepared for quarterly results from major companies, September housing data and continued volatility in energy markets.
At 5:20 a.m. ET, futures tracking the Nasdaq 100 were down 0.5%, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.09%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.22%, equivalent to approximately 115 points.
- Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.5%, while Dow futures gained 0.22% and S&P 500 futures slipped 0.09%. Brent crude approached $111 a barrel amid continuing Middle East tensions.
- FactSet projects 29% year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth for Q3 2026. Goldman Sachs expects annual earnings growth to slow from approximately 29% in 2026 to 18% in 2027.
- Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Fundstrat differ on the outlook for US equities, while economists forecast September housing starts of approximately 1.31 mn units at an annualized rate.
The weakness followed Monday’s recovery, when the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1% and the S&P 500 advanced 0.4%. The Dow declined 0.1%.
Technology stocks had fallen sharply the previous week. The Nasdaq lost 4.5%, the S&P 500 declined approximately 1.9%, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF dropped 10.5%.
Higher borrowing costs and concerns about financing large-scale AI infrastructure investment have weighed on companies dependent on substantial capital expenditure.
Nasdaq futures fall as AI infrastructure stocks weaken
CoreWeave shares declined 3.1% in premarket trading, while Nebius Group fell 2.9%. Apple lost approximately 1%, and Nvidia traded slightly lower.
Selling pressure extended beyond the US market. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 3.7%, affected by declines in semiconductor companies including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
South Korean AI infrastructure company Elice Group also fell nearly 30% in its market debut.
Ion Jauregui, an analyst at ActivTrades, characterized the latest market movement as a period of greater selectivity rather than evidence of a broad recovery in AI-related equities.
Investors have become more sensitive to debt levels, financing costs and the ability of AI infrastructure companies to generate sufficient cash flow to support expansion.
Fundstrat head of research Tom Lee maintains a more positive assessment. In commentary released ahead of Tuesday’s session, Lee said he was buying the recent decline in AI-related stocks.
He attributed some of the selling to concerns about South Korea’s technology sector and the potential for financial difficulties among companies borrowing heavily to develop AI infrastructure.
Lee also identified upcoming technology earnings and Nvidia’s GTC Berlin conference as events that could influence investor expectations.
Wall Street analysts revise earnings and stock market forecasts
Corporate earnings expectations remain strong despite the recent decline in technology shares.
FactSet estimates that S&P 500 earnings will increase 29% year over year in the third quarter of 2026, compared with a previous estimate of 29.4%.
As of October 16, approximately 9% of companies in the index had reported quarterly results. Among those companies, 84% exceeded earnings-per-share expectations.
The average positive earnings surprise was 2.6%, however, substantially below the five-year average of 7.5%.
FactSet analyst John Butters identified downward earnings revisions in healthcare as a principal contributor to the reduction in the index’s quarterly growth estimate, partly offset by improved forecasts for energy companies.
Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 earnings growth to moderate from approximately 29% in 2026 to 18% in 2027.
A team of Goldman strategists led by Ben Snider has also warned about narrowing market breadth and exposure to momentum-driven stocks.
The bank favors selected companies in healthcare and consumer staples with relatively low share-price volatility and high free cash flow yields.
Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson expects high-quality companies to remain comparatively resilient.
Wilson believes the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 could experience further weakness as its largest constituents adjust to declines already recorded across much of the wider market.
He identifies a potential buying opportunity after that adjustment, with companies demonstrating strong profitability and balance sheets expected to lead a subsequent recovery.
Netflix, SpaceX, Meta and Tesla earnings take focus
Approximately 70 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report earnings during the week.
Netflix and SpaceX are expected to release quarterly results after Tuesday’s market close, followed by Meta Platforms and Tesla on Wednesday.
Wall Street expects Netflix to report approximately $12.9 bn in quarterly revenue, representing roughly 12% annual growth, and adjusted earnings of $0.82 per share.
Analysts are examining advertising revenue, subscriber engagement, content spending and profitability.
SpaceX is expected to report approximately $12.9 bn in revenue and earnings of $0.14 per share. Investors will also examine Starlink subscriber growth, operating cash flow and capital expenditure.
Meta’s third-quarter revenue is projected at approximately $63.3 bn, representing 24% year-over-year growth, with earnings of $5.60 per share.
The company’s spending on AI infrastructure and the commercial performance of its Muse assistant will be central to the earnings assessment.
Tesla is expected to report revenue of approximately $28 bn and adjusted earnings of $0.44 per share.
Options markets imply that Tesla shares could move approximately 6% in either direction following its results. Analysts are monitoring automotive margins, capital expenditure, autonomous driving operations and progress in robotics.
Outside technology, Tuesday’s earnings calendar includes General Motors, GE Aerospace, 3M, Halliburton and RTX.
Steel Dynamics fell more than 6% in premarket trading after missing quarterly profit estimates.
US housing starts forecast to recover to 1.31 mn
US housing data will provide another measure of economic conditions before the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting. The Census Bureau is scheduled to release September housing starts at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday.
A Reuters survey of 27 forecasters indicates a median estimate of 1.31 mn housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, compared with 1.275 mn in August.
Individual forecasts range from 1.25 mn to 1.35 mn. Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, noted that housing starts exceeded 1.3 mn in six of the first eight reports of 2026.
The National Association of Realtors will also publish September pending home sales data at 10:00 a.m. ET. Market expectations point to a 0.4% monthly decline, following a 0.3% increase in August.
Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker expects housing affordability to remain a significant constraint on activity in 2027. The bank forecasts approximately 3.9 mn existing-home sales next year, around 26% below the 2019 level.
Mortgage rates above 7%, limited affordability and the reluctance of homeowners to surrender existing lower-rate mortgages continue to restrict transactions.
Federal Reserve outlook and October interest rate expectations
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its next monetary policy meeting on October 27-28.
Market pricing continues to favor unchanged interest rates, with CME FedWatch data indicating an approximately 83% probability of a hold in early Tuesday trading.
Federal Reserve officials are observing the customary communications blackout period before the meeting.
September inflation figures and elevated energy prices have reduced expectations for near-term monetary easing.
Upcoming economic releases include weekly initial jobless claims on October 22 and preliminary October manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes on October 23.
Investors will also receive updated University of Michigan consumer sentiment data on Friday.
The immediate focus remains on September housing starts and pending home sales, followed by Netflix and SpaceX results after Tuesday’s close. Meta and Tesla report on Wednesday, providing further information on corporate spending, margins and earnings expectations for 2027.
