Aon published its Global natural Catastrophe Recap: First Half 2024 report, which cites a preliminary estimate of more than $117 bn in economic losses from global natural disasters during the first half (1H) of 2024.
This figure was lower than the 21st-century 1H average of $137 bn, and significantly lower than the economic losses recorded in 1H 2023 ($226 bn).
Aon reports global insured losses for the first half of 2024 at least $58 bn, exceeds the 21st-century average of $39 bn for the same period but is lower than the previous three years, where losses surpassed $60 bn by June’s end.
Fatalities from natural catastrophes during this period were estimated at over 6,000, marking the lowest since 2020 and significantly below long-term averages.
Aon also notes a reduction in the insurance protection gap to 50%, one of the lowest on record for the first half of the year. This reduction is mainly due to high insurance payouts for U.S. severe convective storm damage.
U.S. natural disasters accounted for nearly 80% of global insured losses in the first half of 2024, totaling nearly $46 bn.
The report highlights that 30 economic loss events exceeded $1 billion during 1H, 22 of which occurred in the U.S., two in South America, four in Asia, and two in EMEA.
Japan’s Noto earthquake on January 1 was the costliest 1H economic loss event, with more than $17 billion in direct damage. The costliest insured loss event was a period of SCS in the U.S. in March, estimated at $4.7 billion.
Apart from the high prevalence of SCS in the U.S., extensive flooding events in southern Germany, Brazil, the Middle East and China also contributed to the total global economic damage.
It is great to see a lowering of the global protection gap, which is a result of the high levels of insurance coverage for the SCS events observed in the first half of 2024
Michal Lörinc, head of Catastrophe Insight at Aon
“However, the re/insurance industry needs to continue its efforts to increase levels of insurance in emerging markets, through provision of not just capital and capacity, but also advanced data and analytics, which help to qualify and quantify the risk, and ultimately shape better decisions”, said Michal Lörinc, head of Catastrophe Insight at Aon.
Our Risk Capital experts leverage analytics to bring capital to clients and ensure that the impact of natural catastrophes is spread across the risk transfer chain to protect communities and businesses.
Andy Marcell, global CEO of Aon’s Risk Capital and Reinsurance Solutions
The outlook for 2H 2024 is marked by heightened expectations of a costly hurricane season, as well as continuing SCS activity in the U.S. and Europe. By early July, the second named storm of the season, Hurricane Beryl, already resulted in potentially multi-billion-dollar losses.
Global insured losses from natural disaster events in the first half of 2024 are estimated to reach at least $58 billion, which was significantly higher than average since 2000 ($39 billion) and median of the same period ($36 billion).
It is nevertheless a slight decrease compared to the costly years of 2021-2023, which all saw losses exceeding $60 billion in the 1H.
The financial toll of the first six months was dominated by the severe convective storm peril with roughly three quarters of the total, yet flooding and winter weather were also responsible for a notable part of the aggregated loss.
