Moody’s RMS Event Response estimates that private-market insured losses from Hurricane Melissa will reach between $3 bn and $5 bn, driven mainly by wind damage in Jamaica.
The Bahamas, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands contributed only marginally to the total.
The risk modeller’s best estimate sits around $3.5 bn, but Moody’s warned Jamaica’s total economic losses could surpass the country’s 2024 GDP of roughly $20 bn.
The estimate captures damage and business interruption across residential, commercial, industrial, and auto insurance lines.
It also factors in post-event loss amplification – from destroyed infrastructure, long-term outages, and extended business interruption – while excluding sovereign programs like the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, IBRD catastrophe bonds, and national disaster policies.
- Private insurers are facing about $2.4 bn in losses from the destruction caused by Hurricane Melissa across Jamaica and Cuba, according to a flash estimate from KCC.
- Moody’s RMS Event Response estimates that private-market insured losses from Hurricane Melissa will reach between $3 bn and $5 bn
- Karen Clark & Company’s (KCC) estimated private insured loss from Hurricane Melissa, which includes damages to residential, commercial, and industrial properties in Jamaica and Cuba to hit $2.4 bn.
- Cotality estimated the total insured losses from the event to be around $1.5 bn, within a range of $1 bn to $2.5 bn, while total property damage from wind, storm surge, and flooding is expected to range between $5 bn and $9 bn.
- The Extreme Event Solutions group at Verisk believes that industry insured losses to onshore property in Jamaica from Hurricane Melissa will likely range from $2.2-4.2 bn.
- According to AccuWeather’s preliminary estimates, the storm caused $48-52 bn in total damage and economic losses. Meanwhile, re/insurance broker Aon warns that total economic and insured losses could land in the single-digit billions of USD, and potentially higher after future damage assessments.
Wind remains the primary loss driver, with only minor flooding and storm surge effects.
Moody’s said insured wind losses stem mostly from commercial exposures such as hotels, resorts, and multi-family or high-rise buildings, many of which sustained severe structural and business interruption losses.
Insurance penetration in Jamaica varies sharply. Large hotels typically have full coverage and robust limits, while most commercial properties maintain some protection, though often underinsured.
Personal lines tell a different story – coverage for single-family homes outside urban, affluent areas remains patchy, leaving much of the population exposed.
Moody’s expects many households and small businesses to face severe financial hardship and long recovery timelines.
Hurricane Melissa made three landfalls – first as a Category 5 storm near New Hope, St. Elizabeth Parish, Jamaica, on Oct. 28; then as a Category 3 near Chivirico, Cuba; and finally crossing the central and southeastern Bahamas as a Category 1–2 on Oct. 29.
It was the thirteenth named storm and fourth major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, and the first Category 5 to strike Jamaica since records began in 1851.
Jeff Waters, Director of North Atlantic Hurricane Models at Moody’s, called Melissa “a generational event” for Jamaica.
While Kingston was largely spared, other towns were devastated by a combination of catastrophic winds and inland flooding.
Jeff Waters, Director of North Atlantic Hurricane Models at Moody’s
“Even with key ports operational, recovery will be slowed by supply chain issues. We’re talking months, maybe years,” he said.
Raj Vojjala, Managing Director of Modelling and Analytics, added that local surveys revealed a stark divide between insured and uninsured buildings.
“Insured structures are typically concrete or reinforced masonry, built to seismic standards that also handle wind. Uninsured homes, by contrast, often lack such resilience,” he said.
With no major hurricane since Gilbert in 1988, construction standards for many dwellings lagged behind what Melissa demanded.
The estimates draw from Moody’s RMS Version 25 North Atlantic Hurricane Models and its 2025 Caribbean Hurricane exposure database.
The findings underline a familiar pattern in regional catastrophe losses – insurance helps manage the shock, but wide protection gaps mean recovery will be uneven, slow, and deeply costly.
