Ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz now face war risk insurance costs up to 4,000 times higher than before the crisis, as maritime traffic remains limited and highly dangerous.
Dozens of vessels have crossed the strait in recent weeks, sometimes with U.S. military guidance and helicopter escorts. Industry experts say those movements remain exceptional and do not represent a return to normal navigation.
Reports suggest between 30 and 70 vessels have passed through the strait since early May. Those ships still faced the risk of Iranian sea mines, missiles, drones, fast-attack boats, attempted boardings, and detention.
Analysts warned that escorted crossings cannot replace a free and open waterway. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, and partial transit does not restore full commercial confidence.
Reports of vessel transits should be viewed as exceptions until a broader peace deal emerges. Without an agreement, shipowners still face major security, insurance, operational, and crew-related barriers.
Bloomberg shipping data showed that 29 of 109 larger vessels stranded after the strait was effectively shut have crossed the chokepoint. Those vessels can each carry 700,000 barrels or more.
Ship-tracking data also suggests that at least one-quarter of non-Iranian ships stranded since the conflict began have left the area. Still, around 100 container ships remain trapped in the Arabian Gulf, according to Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta.
German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd said four of its vessels remain stuck. One vessel has been in transit for four weeks, and the company said U.S. assistance would only be useful if ships were protected and the route was mine-free.
U.S. President Donald Trump said he expected a deal with Iran within the coming week to reopen the strait. The comments followed an agreement between Israel and Hezbollah to stop attacking each other in Lebanon.
The strait and the wider conflict cannot be resolved militarily. Hormuz is more likely to reopen and remain open through negotiations as part of a broader war settlement.
U.S. support for vessel transit is not scalable in the same way as normal open navigation. Still, the company said it can help move stranded ships or high-priority cargo through controlled passages.
US shipping insurance plan for Hormuz set to launch soon, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. US insurance programme designed to support shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will begin soon, a move aimed at helping restore traffic through one of the world’s most important energy routes, according to Bloomberg.
Bessent made the comment during a White House cabinet meeting led by President Donald Trump.
The plan is expected to support safer passage for oil tankers and other vessels moving through the strait, where disruptions have raised pressure across global oil and gas markets.
The programme follows Trump’s earlier announcement that DFC would provide insurance guarantees alongside naval escorts for commercial shipping in the area.
The goal is straightforward enough, reduce transit risk and help get vessels moving again.
If the programme works as intended, it could help revive flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint carrying a large share of the world’s oil and gas supplies. In this market, even small improvements in shipping confidence can matter.
The fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire came under new pressure on Memorial Day after American forces carried out fresh strikes in southern Iran. The strikes took place as President Donald Trump attended a ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery honoring 13 service members killed during Operation Epic Fury.
U.S. Central Command said the strikes were defensive. Spokesman Capt. Timothy Hawkins said U.S. forces targeted missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to place mines.
The action occurred near Bandar Abbas, Iran’s main naval base and a central point in the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. The passage normally carries about 20% of the world’s seaborne oil supply.
The quieter approach appears more effective than a public “force open Hormuz” strategy. Coordination, intelligence, route guidance, and security support reduce the political and military threshold.
Instead of creating a visible test of wills with Iran, the US seems to be helping selected vessels move through with co-ordination, intelligence, route guidance and security support.
Analysts warned that the guided transit model remains a triage system rather than a functioning trade corridor. For Hormuz to reopen properly, ships need predictable security, insurance cover, crew confidence, and assurance against attack, boarding, mining, or detention.
The data showed about 412 ships still trapped or waiting in the Arabian Gulf. The company observed around 55 crossings between 22 May and 28 May, with smaller numbers recorded on the following days.
US efforts to end the war with Iran suffered another setback after a commercial vessel was apparently seized by unauthorized personnel near the United Arab Emirates, accordiong to Bloomberg. The incident added more uncertainty around control of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
The vessel’s identity was not immediately clear. UK Maritime Trade Operations said Thursday that the ship was taken 38 nautical miles off the UAE coast and was heading toward Iran.
The seizure came as more vessels appeared to be moving through the strait. Hormuz usually handles about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supply.
Its effective closure since the US and Israel began bombing Iran in late February has shaken energy markets. Supply shortages have spread beyond the Gulf, and prices remain under pressure.
Movement has returned only as a controlled and partial flow. It does not yet show that normal transit conditions have resumed for commercial shipping.
U.S. transit claims remain difficult to verify immediately because many vessels reportedly crossed without broadcasting their location. Some ships also moved near Oman’s coast before their crossings were reported.
Risks remain high even for ships guided through the channel. Vessels still face drones, missiles, sea mines, fast-attack boats, GPS disruption, AIS interference, misidentification, and escalation between military forces.
The risks became more visible after MSC Sariska V was attacked off Iraq. The strike left a large hole in the vessel’s hull, and MSC described Iran’s actions as completely unjustified.
Iran still claims influence over the strait and will not surrender that leverage without concessions in negotiations with the United States. He said each transit remains exposed to attack from fast boats, missiles, drones, and mines.
Ships crossing the strait with U.S. naval support still need expensive war risk insurance. Maritime risk analysis and insurance market reports show premiums have jumped sharply since the crisis began.
A seven-day war risk policy for a vessel crossing Hormuz is now offered at about 4% of the ship’s value. Before the crisis, similar cover could cost as little as 0.001% of the vessel’s value.
Each policy will include specific conditions, and shipowners must notify insurers before any transit. Insurers then set the premium according to route risk, vessel exposure, and security conditions.
Shipping fees should remain elevated compared with prewar levels. He expects rates to ease only after full reopening, with a backlog lasting two to three months once the route returns to normal.
According to Beinsure analysts, the Strait of Hormuz crisis shows how geopolitical risk quickly becomes an insurance pricing event. Naval escorts reduce some operational risk, but they do not restore normal underwriting conditions.
War risk premiums, crew concerns, AIS disruption, and mine exposure will keep shipping costs high until the waterway becomes predictably open rather than selectively passable.
