To compete against international reinsurers’ better prices, and increase profitability, insurers in countries part of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), will likely grow their reinsurance business, but this would also bring new risks, according to Moody’s analysts.
Limited opportunities for profitable growth in the CIS region’s primary insurance markets are a further incentive
New reinsurance activities will support CIS profitability and enhance their diversification.
Insurance penetration in the CIS region excluding Russia and Belarus is low, with total annual premiums of over USD 4 billion, while poor data quality hampers adequate pricing and risk management. Legal and regulatory frameworks are also relatively underdeveloped.
As global property reinsurance prices remain high, CIS insurers to continue to grow their international reinsurance business over the next 12 to 18 months, the report says.
We estimate that Uzbek and Kazakh companies will expand the fastest with international reinsurance premiums rising by 20–40% in 2024
The agency’s analysts believe that CIS insurers, led by companies in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, are significantly expanding their presence in international reinsurance markets, capitalizing on the global reinsurers’ partial withdrawal from some markets in response to mounting catastrophe claims.
They have also benefited from the exit of Russian reinsurers since the start of the Ukraine conflict. Russian players previously generated annual reinsurance premiums worth USD 400 million.
In 2023, international premiums increased by around 40% in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and analysts believe this will continue to grow faster than primary insurance premiums in the next 12-18 months.
We anticipate an improvement in insurers’ geographic and business diversification and a positive impact on their profitability, provided they manage their international expansion prudently and avoid major catastrophe claims
Moody’s
Moody’s also noted that rapid growth in reinsurance business volumes will also put pressure on CIS insurers’ regulatory capital adequacy.
Analysts added that CIS insurers’ relatively low transparency also limits their access to international investors. As a result, they will likely remain largely dependent on existing shareholders’ ability to inject capital, the agency explained.
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